STOCKS
Dow (24117.59, -0.68%) rose to levels above 24500 but then came off sharply to close lower. As mentioned in the past few editions, 24000 is an near term support which could hold and push back prices to higher levels. Break below 24000 would open up chances of testing 23600-23500 on the downside.
The weekly support on Dax (12348.61, +0.93%) seems to have held and while that holds, the index could move up targeting
13000 in the medium term.
Nikkei (22177.58, -0.42%) has been gradually moving lower and could pause for some sessions near 22000. Failure to see a short bounce from 22000 would take it lower towards 21800-21500 in the longer run.
2800 on Shanghai (2814.45, +0.045%) 3-day candles is an immediate support and if that holds some short term rise is possible towards 2850-2900. Overall in the longer rub 2800 may not act as a strong support and an eventual break below 2800 is likely.
Nifty (10671.40, -0.91%) came off sharply yesterday to make an intra-day low of 10652. But unless a sharp and sustained fall below 10650 is seen, we may still have some hopes of bullishness for the near to medium term. A break below 10650, on the other hand would initiate medium term fall towards 10400 or even lower. The 2-remaining sessions this week would be crucial to watch.
COMMODITIES
Trump’s demands that the allies including India should stop importing Crude from Iran by November 4 this year could impact India as India and China fall under the major importers of Iranian Oil. Crude prices are trading higher just now and is likely to move up in the near term.
Very sharp rise seen in Brent (77.58) and WTI (72.59) after the recent dip and consolidation. Brent has enough room on the upside towards 80-82 on the 3-day candles; while WTI could face some resistance near 76. Overall near term looks bullish.
Gold (1254.40) is on its way to test 1250-1240 where a pause could be seen in the early sessions of next week. While below 1270, Gold prices may remain bearish.
Copper (2.9995) could possibly trade above 2.95 for now. A break below 2.90 would be necessary to turn the sentiment to bearish in the medium term.
FOREX
Euro (1.1567): Euro broke below support near 1.16 on daily line chart to see a low near 1.154 yesterday. It could see a rise till 1.158-1.160 in today’s session before falling again towards its previous low of 1.1508. The likelihood of a break below 1.15 to target support near 1.145 (on 3 day line chart) has increased and might happen next week. The trigger for the same could be political instability in Germany in the coming week.
Dollar Index (95.24): As per expectation, Dollar Index saw a high near 95.4 yesterday and could test resistance near 95.6 on 3 day line chart in this week. Next week could see a breach of this resistance and a further rise towards 96, as the Euro moves below 1.15.
Dollar Yen (110.11): Dollar Yen saw a high of 110.49 yesterday and could come down towards 110.0-109.8 today. Ranging between 110.75-109.75 could continue into next week; after which it could turn bearish (preferred) or bullish (less preferred). Resistance near 110.5-111.0 is a very strong long term resistance and hence we are expecting it to hold.
Euro Yen (127.38): Against expectation, Euro Yen has broken below support on daily candles near 127.5. With our projection for Euro being bearish and for Dollar Yen being ranged for next week, Euro Yen could dip lower towards 126.5-126.0. We have been saying that a gradual fall towards support near 124 on weekly candles is on the cards in July.
Pound (1.3114): Pound has moved lower towards support near 1.31 on daily and 3 day candles and could move even lower towards horizontal support near 1.30 (weekly candles) in the coming week. A break of 1.30 would be very bearish.
Dollar Rupee (68.61): Chances of Dollar Rupee opening gap up near 68.90 today. The market might be quite Overbought at levels near 68.90 and might be ripe for profit-taking.
INTEREST RATES
US and German yields dropped further as the risk aversion sentiment gets stronger.
German 10 year bond yield (0.32%) is very close to support near 0.3% and could break the support to test previous lows near 0.18% in the weeks ahead.
US 10 year (2.835%), 30 Year (2.976%), 5 Year (2.707%), 2 Year (2.496%) : US yields saw a significant dip with the 10 Year yield seeing lows near 2.82% yesterday:
The US 10 Year yield’s gradual downtrend could target support near 2.70%-2.65% on medium term chart.
Similarly, the 30 Year yield also looks like it could move towards 2.90%.
