Trading today will be dominated by the release of the US employment report which is expected to show a modest growth in jobs and wage inflation. Non-Farm Payrolls numbers for the month are expected at 188K while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to have grown to 0.2% month-on-month from a prior 0.1%. It would take an exceptionally large deviation from the forecasts to alter US monetary policy outlook however there is usually increased volatility around the release of this data. After this event, focus is likely to return to concerns over a trade war as the US has imposed tariffs on the EU, Canada and Mexico.
EURUSD
On the 4-hourly chart, EURUSD appears to have broken out of the descending trading channel and progress is capped at 1.1715. A break of this level would form a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern with a measured target of 1.1920 with resistance at 1.1750 and 1.1830. A reversal and break of 1.1660 would see the pair continue to the downside with support at 1.1640 and 1.1610.
GOLD
Gold is denominated in U.S. dollars so it is likely to react to the NFP report later today. Higher interest rates usually result in a strong dollar and can reduce the appeal of non yielding precious metals. In the daily timeframe, Gold is trading below the major horizontal resistance near 1305. A decisive break of 1305 is needed to open the way to a move towards resistance at 1317 and then 1326. On the flip side, a bearish reversal and break of trend line at 1290 would see a downside continuation to supports at 1285 and then the 38% retracement from the Oct 2016 lows at 1272.
