The Euro holding within narrow range around falling 10SMA (currently at 1.1682) in early Friday’s trading, but remains firm following past two days rally.
Probes through key near-term barriers, 10SMA and Fibo 38.2% of 1.1996/1.1509 (1.1695), failed to close above on initial attempt, but scope for fresh upside exists.
Weekly close above these pivots would generate strong bullish signal for extension of recovery rally from 1.1509 (29 May low).
Concerns over political crisis in Italy eased, keeping the Euro supported, but technical studies are lacking momentum to support further rally, as falling 4-hr cloud weighs.
Repeated failure at 10SMA would be initial signal of recovery stall and risk stronger bearish acceleration on break below 5SMA (1.1640) and signal that larger bears remain intact after correction.
Bullish scenario requires sustained break above 10SMA to open falling 20SMA (1.1772).
US jobs data are in focus as key event today. According to the forecasts, job growth in the US likely accelerated in May and increased to 188K, following 164K in April and 135K in March, when employment growth was affected by poor weather.
Solid numbers today, even slightly below expected figure, would be sufficient to support Fed’s tightening bias as US central bank is widely expected to hike rates in June.
In addition, US average hourly earnings are forecasted at 0.2% in May vs 0.1% previous month while unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% in May, the lowest since 2000.
Strong US employment data would offer fresh support to the greenback and limit Euro’s recovery.
Res: 1.1724, 1.1753, 1.1773, 1.1810
Sup: 1.1665, 1.1640, 1.1617, 1.1594
