The British pound has posted slight losses in the Thursday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3377, up 0.21% on the day. On the release front, British Retail Sales posted a strong gain of 1.6%, crushing the estimate of 0.8%. Over in the US, unemployment claims jumped to 234 thousand, its highest level in seven weeks. As well, Existing Home Sales dropped to 5.42 million, well off the estimate of 5.56 million. Friday will be busy, with key releases on both sides of the pond. The UK releases Second Estimate GDP and Preliminary Business Investment. In the US, we’ll get a look at durable goods orders and consumer confidence.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its May meeting. In the minutes, some Fed policymakers said they favored removing the phrase that “the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative”. Not surprisingly, the minutes didn’t shed light on the Fed’s plans, saying that another rate hike would occur “soon”, on the assumption that the US economy continues to perform as expected. Still, a quarter-point rate hike in August is virtually a given, with the CME Group setting the odds of a hike at 95 percent. This would mark a second hike in 2018. After that? The Fed projection remains at three rates hikes in 2018, but some analysts are predicting four increases this year.
Just a few weeks ago, there was a strong likelihood that the Bank of England would raise interest rates at the May policy meeting. However, a spate of weak economic releases and falling inflation resulted in policymakers standing pat, leaving rates at 0.50%. Are we in for a repeat performance in August? Inflation levels continue to drop, with April CPI falling to 2.4%, down from 2.5% a month earlier. If Friday’s GDP report misses expectations, an August rate hike will be in serious doubt. Earlier in the week, the markets priced in an August hike at 50%, but this dropped to just 33% after Wednesday’s weak inflation data. The pound is also under pressure, and the downward spiral is likely to continue if this week’s indicators do not perform well.
