At 08:30 GMT, UK Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) is expected to come in at 2.9% from 2.8% previously. Claimant Count Change (Apr) is expected at 7.5K from a previous reading of 11.6K. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Apr) is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%. Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) is expected to be 2.6% from 2.8% previously. Claimant Count Rate (Mar) was 2.4% previously. Wage growth had been expected to continue to tick up last month, having stabilised at 2.5% and risen to 2.8% in the previous months, however, it missed the 3.0% consensus. The unemployment rate is at multi-decade lows, which should normally lead to higher wage growth, as competition to attract workers takes hold. The BOE will study wage data to see any indication of a pick-up and decide whether they need to maintain their hawkish tone. GBP crosses could be influenced by this data release.
At 09:00 GMT, German ZEW Survey – Current Situation (May) is expected at 86.2 against a prior 87.9. ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (May) is expected to be unchanged at -8.2. These data points are expected to soften, as the strengthening in the Euro affects business. The deteriorating trade environment is also a headwind for business outlook. Last month was the first negative forecast in sentiment since Brexit. EUR crosses may be affected by this data.
At 09:00 GMT, Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q1) is expected to come in unchanged at 0.4%. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q1) is also expected to be unchanged at 2.5%. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Mar) will be released with a consensus of 3.7% from a prior of 2.9%. Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Mar) is expected at 0.7% from -0.8% previously. The monthly figure had dipped to -1.0% but rebounded last month, with a much stronger rebound expected today. The EUR may be moved by this data.
At 10:30 GMT, The Central Bank of Russia will release its Interest Rate Decision. The rate was held at 7.25% previously. RUB pairs may see volatility increase around this event.
At 12:30 GMT, US Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) will be released with an expected 0.3% from 0.6% previously. Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr) is expected at 0.5% from 0.2% prior. Retail Sales Control Group (Apr) is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that sales will slip after last month’s beat, despite an expected stronger performance from Autos. USD crosses could see increased volatility around this data release.
At 17:00 GMT, FOMC Member Williams is expected to speak at the Economic Club of Minnesota May Luncheon, in Minneapolis. Audience questions are expected. USD crosses may be affected by any comments made.
