The birth of the Euro was based on the idea that it would become an alternative reserve currency
Iran seesawed about accepting Bitcoin and had a soft to hard stance toward Bitcoin.
It is not every day that you get an opportunity of a lifetime but when you have it, one should not miss that. The European Union clearly has this at their doorstep and they should thank the President of the United States, Donald Trump, for deciding to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal.
Really? Of course, every situation has two angles. It all depends where you focus more.
I think the current situation could make the EU position a lot stonger and it is an opportunity for France and Germany to play a global role and emboss Euro as an alternative benchmark currency like the US dollar.
This is not a new idea at all. After all the birth of the Euro was based on the idea that it would become an alternative reserve currency, a benchmark which countries could use to trade.
Thanks to the evolution of the cryptocurrency King, Bitcoin, which has stretched this idea to its bone, countries are open to trade the most important commodity – oil – by using Bitcoin. Russia, a long-time rival for the US, has bounced this idea and a few others have nodded to this. Trump has just put fuel to the fire by pulling out of the nuclear deal and imposing sanctions on Iran.
Iran seesawed about accepting Bitcoin and had a soft to hard stance toward Bitcoin. But mostly there was no clear idea about the cryptocurrency. However, after Venezuela showed the world that the cryptocurrency could be the route to block sanctions, I think Iran would be very serious in looking at the options of how to explore further avenues which would not hurt its economy. The country is in a much stronger position and it is well prepared as compared to the previous occasions. There are more options on their doorsteps now and this would limit the damage to the economy.
The EU: France, Germany and the UK are not pleased with the US situation especially, France particularly. The President of the country, Emmanuel Macron, has played a distinct role to keep the US in the deal. The country has large exposure in Iran and the EU needs to protect the mini-boom in trade. The number stands at €20bn for last year and this number has tripled from the pre-deal low of €6.2bn back in 2013.
EU, France, Germany and the UK would meet Iran on May 15 and the discussion would involve one key area; Iran needs assurance that the nuclear deal will not be sabotaged. The EU would be interested in defending the interest of the European companies and they would have to find a solution or way around the US sanctions.
Of course, if Bitcoin had progressed further with the regulators, the cryptocurrency would have been as one of the options but for now, it would not be the option. But, it is my opinion that the EU would speed up the process of legitimising Bitcoin by the regulators so that they have an alternative to the dollar. If Donald Trump pushes the SEC to void that somehow, that would be a different argument, especially considering how far he could go with that.
A shining option on the table would be loans denominated in Euro. The EU should show the US that they are fully capable of salvaging the deal forward forged under the Obama administration. The EU must take this opportunity to show the strength of the European Bank and its currency.
Italy already issued euro-based sovereign credit line worth of €5bn so bilateral deals could easily be done with the help of the European central bank. Most importantly, Banque Delubac & Cie, a family-owned bank in Paris, has deep roots in Iran and under the French treasury suggestion it is active in building commercial ties.
EU would have to convince the companies such as Total, Airbus, Sanofi, Renault, Peugeot (just a few names which come to mind) which need assurance from both sides: Iran and the EU to continue their involvement.
As long as they are complying with the EU regulations and the loans are Euro denominated with no exposure to the dollar, the common currency and the EU could create an example like no other.
