At 08:30 GMT, UK Markit Services PMI (Apr) is expected to come in at 53.5 from 51.7 previously. This data has continued to decline from its 2013 high of 62.5 and had fallen below 53.0 last time out, which had been somewhat of a floor over the past 18 months. The number is expected to move back above 53.0 today, showing modest growth. Failure to do this will put GBP under further pressure.
At 09:00 GMT, Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Apr) is expected to be 0.9% against the previous 1.0%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) is expected to be unchanged at 1.3%. The recovery in the Euro area is still strong and growing, despite some questionable economic data which may be weather related. CPI is stabilizing around 1.2%/1.3%. EUR crosses may be impacted by this data release.
At 12:30 GMT US Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr 20) is expected to be 1.838M against 1.837M previously. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 27) is expected to come in at 225K against 209K previously. This data is showing an increase in the number of people who are jobless. Nonfarm Productivity (Q1) is expected to be in at 0.9% against 0.0% previously. Unit Labour Costs (Q1) is expected to be 2.9% against 2.5% prior, showing what has become an expected seasonal increase in this metric, although these costs may be passed onto consumers. Trade Balance (Mar) is expected to be $-50.0B against a previous $-57.6B, reaching levels not seen since 2008. USD crosses may see an increase in volatility from this data release.
At 12:30 GMT, Canadian International Merchandise Trade (Mar) is expected to be $-2.24B against a previous number of $-2.69B. This data is off the low from August 2017 but still shows a negative imbalance. CAD pairs could be moved by this data.
At 13:45 GMT, US Markit Services PMI (Apr) is expected to be unchanged at 54.4. This data is stable at present but a miss today may provoke a market reaction. Markit PMI Composite (Apr) is expected to be 55.2 against 54.8 previously, with consensus pointing to a pick-up in this metric. USD pairs could be moved by this data series.
At 14:00 GMT, US ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI (Apr) is expected to be 58.1 against 58.8 previously. This is still in the upper range of the data releases we have seen over the past seven years but off the highs of above 65.0 reached before the financial crisis. Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar) is expected to be 1.4% from 1.2% prior. This data can be volatile and the expectation is for a positive reading but numbers are expected to remain in the recent range of +3.0% to -3.0%. USD traders will be closely watching this release.
At 16:00 GMT, SNB Chairman Jordan will deliver a speech titled “This is Why the Vollgeld Initiative Harms Switzerland” at the Swiss Institute for Banking and Finance, in Zurich. CHF crosses may be moved by this data.
