EUR/USD has posted slight gains in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2360, up 0.23% on the day. On the release front, there is only one eurozone event. The German Wholesale Price Index improved to 0.0%, but fell short of the estimate of 0.4%. In the US, the key indicators are retail sales reports. Retail Sales are expected to improve to 0.4%, after two straight declines. Core Retail Sales is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.2%. On Tuesday, German releases ZEW Economic Sentiment, and the US will publish Building Permits and Housing Starts.
It was a dramatic weekend, as a US-led strike destroyed several chemical installations in Syria. Predictably, Syria and Russia strongly condemned the attack, but are unlikely to retaliate despite the rhetoric. The markets had already priced in an attack, and are hopeful that Trump’s declaration of “mission accomplished” means that things will remain relatively quiet in Syria. However, further chemical attacks by the Syrian regime could trigger a response from the US and its allies, which could result in volatility in the markets, similar to what occurred last week.
US consumer numbers ended the week on a disappointing note, as UoM Consumer Sentiment dropped to 97.2, down from 102.0 a month earlier. The reading missed the estimate of 100.6, and marked a 3-month low. Still, with the economy continuing to perform low and unemployment at very low levels, the US consumer remains very optimistic.
The Federal Reserve minutes from the March meeting were hawkish in tone, reflective of a solid US economy. All of the Fed policymakers indicated that the US economy would continue to improve and that inflation would rise in the next few months. At the March meeting, the Fed unanimously voted to raise rates by a quarter-point, bringing the benchmark rate to a range between 1.50% and 1.75%. The Fed projection for rate policy in 2018 remains at three hikes, although there is speculation that the Fed could revise the forecast to four rate hikes. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed would likely continue to raise rates in order to keep a lid on inflation, but added that the rate moves would be gradual. A new headache for the Fed is the escalating trade battle between the US and China, which could hurt the economy and raise consumer prices. The Fed is expected to sit maintain rates at the May policy meeting and raise rates by a quarter-point in June.
