HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisWeekly Focus: A Slowly Fought Trade War

Weekly Focus: A Slowly Fought Trade War

Market movers ahead

  • In the euro area, we project HICP inflation in March will bounce back to 1.5% y/y supported by Easter effects.
  • Several Fed members are due to speak in coming weeks, giving further insight into the future hiking pace.
  • Average hourly earnings will again be in focus in the US labour market report for March. We expect PCE core inflation figures to remain unchanged at 1.5% y/y.
  • In Japan, keep an eye on private consumption and labour market data.
  • We expect Chinese Caixin PMI manufacturing to decline, driven by financial tightening measures.
  • In Scandinavia, Danish business confidence and Norwegian house prices are due for release.

Global macro and market themes

  • The trade war is being fought very slowly.
  • The Fed lifted its rate path slightly due to Trumponomics.
  • We are keeping an eye on the increasing Libor/OIS spread.
  • The Brexit transition deal is not a game changer for EUR/GBP.

Full Report in PDF

Danske Bank
Danske Bankhttp://www.danskebank.com/danskeresearch
This publication has been prepared by Danske Markets for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Markets´ research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Markets is a division of Danske Bank A/S, which is regulated by FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright (©) Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Featured Analysis

Learn Forex Trading

A Trade or a Gamble?

Getting What You Really Want