Market movers ahead
- In the euro area, we project HICP inflation in March will bounce back to 1.5% y/y supported by Easter effects.
- Several Fed members are due to speak in coming weeks, giving further insight into the future hiking pace.
- Average hourly earnings will again be in focus in the US labour market report for March. We expect PCE core inflation figures to remain unchanged at 1.5% y/y.
- In Japan, keep an eye on private consumption and labour market data.
- We expect Chinese Caixin PMI manufacturing to decline, driven by financial tightening measures.
- In Scandinavia, Danish business confidence and Norwegian house prices are due for release.
Global macro and market themes
- The trade war is being fought very slowly.
- The Fed lifted its rate path slightly due to Trumponomics.
- We are keeping an eye on the increasing Libor/OIS spread.
- The Brexit transition deal is not a game changer for EUR/GBP.