HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisWeekly Focus: The Storm Calmed Down Despite US Inflation Shock

Weekly Focus: The Storm Calmed Down Despite US Inflation Shock

Feb 16 18, 15:29 GMT

Market movers ahead

The main news out of the US will be the minutes from the January FOMC meeting; discussions on inflation and fiscal stimulus will be particularly interesting.
In the euro area the focus turns to PMI and German ifo expectations – both for January. We believe the business surveys have peaked and will move slightly lower from here.
Other global data to watch will be UK labour market report, Japanese PMI and Chinese house prices.
In Scandi look out for Swedish inflation data and the oil investment survey and unemployment in Norway.

Global macro and market themes

There was more fuel for the inflation scare from US core inflation…
…but stock markets shrugged it off this time, suggesting the sell-off is over. We look for more upside in equities as fundamentals still look robust.
We see tentative signs of a peak in the global business cycle, but growth is expected to remain solid.
We expect the rise in bond yields to slow down, but see upside risk on a 12M horizon.

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