Market movers ahead
- In the US, January PCE inflation figures are due next week and we have several speeches by FOMC members in the calendar, along with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell hearing before the Financial Services Committee.
- In the euro area, February HICP inflation is due for release on Wednesday. We do not believe underlying wage pressure will be enough to lift core inflation much higher than the 1.0-1.2% level in 2018, despite the strong growth momentum.
- Other global data releases to watch are US ISM manufacturing and core capex figures, UK and Chinese PMIs and Japanese industrial production.
- In Sweden, we get the first estimate of Q4 GDP. Q4 is probably too soon to see the negative effects of the housing market and we estimate GDP rose by 0.7% q/q and 3.2% y/y.
Global macro and market themes
- European PMIs support our view that the acceleration phase is over. Global growth is set to remain strong, supporting equities.
- Donald Trump is slowly getting more protectionist, with a decision looming on steel and aluminium tariffs/quotas.
- The Fed is more confident on its economic outlook, not more hawkish – at least for now.
- Yields are set to move higher and we target EUR/USD at 1.28 in 12M.
