STOCKS
Dow (24893.49, +1.03%) has recovered well and looking bullish in the near term after a break of 24500 on the upside. Immediate target on the upside is 25000-25200 levels.
Dax (12339.16, +1.17%) is likely to range in the 12400-12000 region in the coming sessions. A break above 12400, if seen could take the price towards 12600 which is also a decent resistance. Overall while the index remains below 12600, view remains sideways to bearish.
Nikkei (21434.63, +1.33%) is up slightly and remains above 21000 support. We prefer support near 21000 to hold in the medium term, thus pushing the index towards 22200 or a little higher in the coming sessions. A break below 21000, if seen could make the index vulnerable to a sharp fall in the longer run.
Shanghai (3199.16, +0.45%) is trading a bit higher today, trying to recover from levels near 3050. Now the earlier support turned resistance near 3260 is important and while the index remains below 3260, near term is likely to remain bearish with a possibility of another fall from levels near 3230. Only a sustained rise above 3260 can take the index back to higher levels in the long term.
Nifty (10500.90, -0.37%) is holding well above 10380-10400 levels and while that holds, the prices may attempt to move up towards 10800 or even higher in the medium term. Sensex (34155.95, -0.42%) also has similar support near 33750 which is likely to hold and keep the price stable for now.
COMMODITIES
Brent (64.86) has moved up well from 62. Support as mentioned yesterday. 65 is an important levels for the near term. A sustained break above 65 is needed to move higher towards 67 in the medium term; else the price is likely to remain ranged in the 63-65 region for some time.
WTI (61.24) has moved up from the upper limit of the support region 57.30-58.00 as mentioned yesterday and is trading higher as expected. A test of 62 is possible in the coming sessions. A sustained rise above 62 is needed o confirm the possibility of further upside just now. Else another fall towards 59-58 could be possible.
Gold (1353.66) has also moved up as expected. A test of 1360 is possible over the next 1-2 sessions. Break above 1360 could take it higher towards 1375-1380 levels.
Copper (3.24) is trading higher and is likely to come off from resistance at 3.25. Near term looks bearish
FOREX
Strong rise in Euro (1.2458) overnight to test the Resistance on the Weekly Line chart, as mentioned yesterday. The previous high of 1.2537 (25-Jan) is the next Resistance to look at. If this also breaks, then we would look at 1.2600 and 1.2670. Having said that there are some chances of a dip from 1.2537. We will have to assess that.
Our target of 106.50 has also been met exactly on Dollar-Yen (106.50). There is some immediate Support at 106.00 and then deeper Support at 105.50, which we should give some respect to. Beware, however, that a break below 105.50 could be very bearish.
The Euro-Yen (132.67) has seen a low of 132.35, just above the target of 132 mentioned yesterday. It could take on more bearishness while below 133 and 134, but confirmation is needed in form of a break below 132.00-131.50.
Dollar-Rupee (64.09) trades at 63.95 on the NDF. We see Supports in the 63.90-85 region.
INTEREST RATES
US 10 Year Yield (2.91), US 30 year Yield (3.16), US 5 year yield (2.66), US 2 year yield (2.18) : Higher than expected inflation in Jan’18 has spooked bond investors globally, increasing the likelihood of a string of rate hikes by the US Fed this year. This is leading to a sell-off, thereby depressing bond prices and increasing yields. The near end yields have seen a rise of almost 15-17 bps in one day while the far end yields have seen a rise of 7-10 bps. As previously stated, our expectation was for yields to respect their long term resistance levels (2.85-2.90, 3.20, 2.7 and 2.2 respectively) in this month. We will have to see if renewed bearishness in the bond market proves us wrong. For now, the channels on short term charts show resistances near 2.9 and 3.16 for 10 year and 30 year respectively which sync well with the long term resistance view.
 overnight to test the Resistance on the Weekly Line chart, as mentioned yesterday. The previous high of 1.2537 (25-Jan) is the next Resistance to look at. If this also breaks, then we would look at 1.2600 and 1.2670. Having said that there are some chances of a dip from 1.2537. We will have to assess that. ){kind=link}