The Canadian dollar has taken a break after an impressive three-day rally, in which the currency climbed about 2%. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4148, up 0.39%. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar touched 140.26, its strongest level since December.
US nonfarm payrolls expected to dip
The hottest financial news is understandably the wave of selling in the equity markets, but there are some key economic releases today as well. The US and Canada will both release the March employment report later today.
The US releases nonfarm payrolls, with the markets projecting a gain of 135 thousand, after a gain of 151 thousand in February. This would point to the US labor market cooling at a gradual pace, which suits the Federal Reserve just fine. The Fed will also be keeping a watchful eye on wage growth, which is expected to tick lower to 3.9% y/y from 4.0%. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%.
The employment landscape is uncertain, with the DOGE layoffs and newly-announced tariffs expected to dampen wage growth in the coming months.
Canada’s employment is expected to improve slightly to 12 thousand, after a negligible gain of 1.1 thousand in February. Unemployment has been stubbornly high and is expected to inch up to 6.7% from 6.6%.
Canada vows retaliatory tariffs against US
US President Donald Trump’s tariff bombshell on Wednesday did not impose new tariffs on Canada, but trade tensions continue to escalate between the two allies. Canada said it would mirror the US stance and impose a 25% tariff on all vehicles imported from the US that do not comply with the US-Canada-Mexico-Canada free trade deal. The US has promised to respond to any new tariffs against the US, which could mean a tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs between Canada and the US.
US/Canada Technical
- USD/CAD has pushed above resistance at 1.4088 and 141.26. The next resistance line is 1.4170
- 1.4044 and 1.4006 are the next support levels
