We take a look at tariffs enacted so far, what is expected to come into effect on April 2nd and what could be on the menu next. We provide an overview of the expected direct impact on US GDP without retaliation or sentiment effects.
While tariffs on individual countries or product groups have usually only limited effect on a macro level, small changes add up.
Fully enacting the expected tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, cars & car parts as well as steel & aluminum could lift the effective average tariff rate above 13% and weigh on US GDP by 0.5%.
The reciprocal measures remain the most difficult to predict. We cannot rule out first EU-specific tariff announcements already next week.
