In focus today
In the US, 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP will be released in the afternoon. The flash release showed GDP growth cooling to 2.3%, but with private consumption growth remaining solid. Several Fed speeches are also scheduled for today, including ones from Hammack, Harker, Barkin and Schmid.
In the euro area, we look out for data on credit and money growth in January. Credit growth will indicate the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy, thus serving as a notable datapoint for the ECB.
In Spain, inflation data for February is released, providing signals of the euro area print on Monday. We expect inflation to decline in February due to lower energy inflation and services inflation. Services inflation is expected to decline significantly in the coming months due to base effects from the large increases recorded in the same months last year.
In Norway, we expect Norges Bank’s Expectations Survey to show that inflation expectations will continue to fall in both the short and long term. We will also focus on the wage expectations of the labour market organizations for 2025 and 2026. We are also keeping an eye on whether the preliminary employment figures for January will confirm the weak trend seen in December, or whether it was noise.
In Sweden, we receive the Economic Tendency Indicator from the National Institute of Economic Research. We will be looking closely at the companies’ pricing plans following yesterday’s high PPI figures and last week’s high inflation figures. Data on the trade balance and household lending is also released.
Economic and market news
What happened yesterday
In the US, mixed signals came from the White House, as President Trump reportedly opened the door for postponing the tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, stressing they could take effect on 2 April. Conversely, a White House official stated that Trump’s initial 4 March deadline remained in effect. Simultaneously, Trump also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on EU goods – “that will be on cars and all other things”. All in all, the ambiguous tariff signals could suggest that Trump is using them as a negotiation tool, also underscored by a modest market reaction to the remarks. Hence, tariff uncertainty remains.
In geopolitics, President Zelenskyy was on the wire, emphasizing that the success of the minerals deal with the US hinges on this upcoming talks with President Trump. At the same time, Zelenskyy reiterated statements from his deputy prime minister and justice minister, noting that the agreement is part of broader deals with the US, while it could also be included in future security guarantees. Trump confirmed that Zelenskyy will travel to the US on Friday to sign the deal but indicated that the US would not provide any far-reaching security guarantees, saying that Europe should take on that responsibility.
We are hosting a webinar today at 09:30-10:00, guiding you through the status and what to expect in terms of possible outcomes and the channels of economic impact. To listen in, please use the following link: Webinar – The new security disorder in Europe – what are the economic implications?, 27 February.
In the euro area, the EU commission presented its “Clean Industrial Deal” comprising its business plan for reviewing economic growth and achieving decarbonisation by unlocking investments in clean industries. The deal aims to boost demand for made-in-Europe products, making energy more affordable, securing access to raw materials, and sharply cut the number of SME companies affected by reporting requirements. We do not expect to a short-term impact on growth from the deal, since there is no significant increase in public spending as part of the plan. The Commission aims at mobilising EUR 100bn (which is merely 0.6% of EU GDP) for EU clean manufacturing in “short-term relief”, but is unclear where the money should come from, and it will mostly likely be mainly private capital as the EU faces financing constraints. All in all, any effect of the deal is years out in the future, but it will likely be positive.
Equities: The rotation into Europe continued Wednesday. S&P 500 closed unchanged while Stoxx 600 gained a full 1%. Despite new tariff threats, US markets stopped the bleeding following four-straight declines, with most indices modestly higher. Another sign that investors have recovered was renewed cyclical preference in the sector space. Cyclicals beat defensives by a full 1% globally. This was led by tech consumer discretionary and banks. The Nvidia earnings report helped pushing back AI capex bubble concerns, after crushing earnings expectations and upbeat commentary. US futures are a notch higher this morning.
FI: Another trading session with a mild bid for European duration, amid concerns about the (particularly) US growth outlook. Since late last week with disappointing US macro data, 10y UST has declined more than 30bp to 4.25%. At the same time, 10y Bunds have declined “only” 10bp, thereby narrowing the transatlantic spread to 181bp. Last night it was reported that the potential US tariff hikes have been postponed to early April. On the data front, we get Spanish inflation releases today for February.
FX: JPY, GBP and USD gained yesterday, where Scandies and AUD and NZD lost on a day whene risk sentiment overall was mixed. EUR/USD traded close to 1.05, EUR/SEK climbed above 11.15 and EUR/NOK hovered around 11.70.
