Fundamental Analysis

Your Weekly Fundamental View


Need to know

The main focus of this week is on GBP CPI and RBNZ rate decision. It is a light week, and we don't expect any big turmoil from the standard news calendar, but there are some important events that traders should be paying attention to. Let's take a look.

Coming up

AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released on Tuesday, 21 March.

This is a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions.

Why should you care? The report creates short-term impact in the markets. The RBA might be providing cues in the currency evaluation and traders could look for some short-term trade setups. Through the statement, traders can get a hint of future policy outcomes.

GBP CPI is due on Tuesday, 21 March.

The report measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumer.

Why should you care? This could be the UK's most important inflation data because it's used as the central bank's inflation target.

NZD GDT Price Index is out on Tuesday, 21 March.

GDT measures the change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction.

Why should you care? It's a leading indicator of the nation's trade balance with other countries.

USD Crude Oil Inventories are due on Wednesday, 22 March.

A build-up in crude oil inventories usually signals decreasing demand from refiners. On the other hand, a drop would signal that refiners are still producing at elevated levels and the inventory overhang in oil products could continue.

Why should you care? This is primarily a US indicator, but it also affects CAD due to Canada's huge energy sector. Previous data showed a -0.2m barrels decrease.

NZD Official Cash Rate decision is released on Wednesday, 22 March.

Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight is also followed by the RBNZ statement that offers clues regarding the outcome of future decisions.

Why should you care? The rate decision might priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the RBNZ Rate Statement that is focused on the future. NZD basket tends to move heavily with this report. Volatility is expected.

GBP Retail sales will be released on Thursday, 23 March.

Retail sales are the primary gauge of consumer spending, released monthly, approximately 20 days after the month ends.

Why should you care? The report might create a short-term spike that traders might like to trade.

USD Fed Chief Yellen speaks on Thursday, 23 March.

Mrs. Yellen is supposed to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference in Washington DC, USA.

Why should you care? As the head of the major central bank who's also in control of short term interest rates, Mrs. Yellen has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders should pay attention for some subtle cues regarding future monetary policy.

CAD CPI is out on Friday, 24 March.

The report represents the overall change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Why should you care? CAD currency basket tends to move with this report.

USD Core durable goods orders will be released on Friday, 24 March.

Being a leading indicator of production, these orders might either rise or drop. Rising purchase orders cue that manufacturers might increase activity.

Why should you care? The report tends to have a short-term impact on the dollar movement.

Author: Admiral MarketsWebsite:
Admiral Markets
The Wave Analysis it for today the most flexible, powerful and perspective tool which allows to predict tendencies which lead to certain changes on financial charts on all time pieces. One of properties of this tool is its insufficient formalisation, proceeding from it the opinion of the author of the forecast made on the basis of the Wave Analysis always is subjective. As the Wave Structure constantly varies, the forecast on the basis of the Wave Analysis reflects opinion of the author at the moment of the forecast publication. The Wave Analysis is not trading system. It not the generator of signals on the conclusion or an exit 1from the transaction, therefore the schematical direction of movement of the price put on the chart should not be for the trader the guide to action on opening of positions. In case of formation in the market of conditions which, according to the author it is possible to use for drawing up of the trading plan - on a chart levels of acknowledgement of the chosen scenario, optimum areas of an input and levels of cancellation of the chosen scenario will be specified in addition.
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