Summary
United States: The Equinox and the Struggle to Find Balance
- Spring is a time for new beginnings, and we see fresh possibility in some of this week’s less-than-stellar data. It may eventually help bring the needed balance into place to get inflation closer to the FOMC’s target.
- Next week: Housing Starts (Tue.), Existing Home Sales (Thu.)
International: Latin America Disinflation Is Stalling
- While nations across Latin America have made impressive progress in their battles against inflation, regional disinflation hit a few speed bumps this week that could disrupt rate cut cycles.
- Next week: Bank of Japan (Tue.), Bank of England (Thu.), Central Bank of Mexico (Thu.)
Interest Rate Watch: FOMC Likely on Hold Until Summer
- Very few observers, ourselves included, look for a policy change at next week’s FOMC meeting. Indeed, recent data have reduced the odds that the Committee will cut rates at its next meeting on May 1. Accordingly, we have pushed out our expectation of the commencement of the easing cycle to June 12.
Topic of the Week: Consumer Expectations Deteriorate for Lower Income Cohorts
- Earlier this week, the New York Fed released the February update to its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The recent update depicts lower income consumers as increasingly uncertain amid broader signs of the labor market softening.
