Summary
United States: Another Week, Another Strong Showing from the U.S. Consumer
- Robust retail sales data were the main story on the U.S. economic data front this week. Elsewhere, data for industrial production and jobless claims offered additional evidence that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing.
- Next week: New Home Sales (Tue.), GDP (Thu.), Personal Income & Spending (Fri.)
International: Israel-Iran Tensions Come to the Surface
- Recent tension between Israel and Iran shows that finding a steady state in the Israel-Hamas war remains elusive. We continue to believe military conflict will remain contained and not expand into Tehran or the broader Middle East. In England, inflation continues to ease, but perhaps not as quickly as policymakers may have hoped for.
- Next week: Middle East Geopolitical Tensions, India Prime Minister Election (Apr.-Jun.), Central Bank of Turkey (Thu.)
Interest Rate Watch: Will Home Buyers Ever Get Some Relief from Elevated Mortgage Rates?
- The 30-year fixed rate mortgage has risen recently, but it still remains below last autumn’s high-water mark of 8%.
Topic of the Week: Steel Your Nerves, Biden Proposes Higher Tariffs on Chinese Imports
- This week, President Biden announced a plan to more than triple tariffs on Chinese aluminum and steel products. As stated in our recent special report, tariffs are often imposed to promote demand for local products and spur domestic production, but the effects of tariffs on Chinese-imported goods have been marginal for U.S. industrial production over the past six years. Will the same hold true with Biden’s proposed policy?
