In 2024, the yen has significantly depreciated against other currencies. The USD/JPY chart indicates that since the first trading day of January, the exchange rate has risen by more than 5%. However, since the 18th, there has been a lull, and it may be disrupted today or tomorrow due to the Bank of Japan’s meeting, during which comments on monetary policy will be provided.
According to Reuters, traders expect that interest rates will not be raised, remaining in the negative territory. This expectation is based on recent “peaceful” comments from the Bank of Japan, coupled with the country facing a serious test in the form of an earthquake on the west coast.
Today’s technical analysis of USD/JPY suggests that buyers may have lost momentum as the price approached the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar. Judging by the long upper shadow (indicated by the arrow) on January 19, selling forces were activated. This could be attributed to either profit-taking by buyers after the rally in the first half of January or the opening of new short positions.
Pay attention to an important resistance zone (shown in blue). The bearish breakthrough occurred around the 149.3 level, confirming bearish dominance at the end of the previous year. It is possible that this dominance may persist, supporting the idea that the current calm may be disrupted in favour of the bears.
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