Market Movers ahead
- A host of important data is due out of the US next week, as well as the November FOMC meeting taking place. The meeting is not expected to yield much news.
- We still expect PCE inflation to be subdued, whereas the labour market report for October should come out strong, due largely to the September hurricanes.
- We expect the Bank of England to raise the Bank Rate by 25bp to 0.50%.
- Preliminary Q3 GDP for the euro area is expected to show a continued recovery, albeit with slightly lower growth than in Q2.
- Euro area headline inflation should have ticked down to 1.4% y/y in October (September: 1.5% y/y), due mainly to energy price base effects, leaving core inflation unchanged.
- We expect the Bank of Japan to keep monetary policy ultra-loose.
- Norwegian house prices are likely to attract some attention. We do not expect the recent trend of falling prices to come to an end.
Global macro and market themes
- Central bankers are keen to put the urge for a normalisation of policy on hold for now with the ECB delivering a dovish taper; Scandi central banks are in wait-and-see mode.
- Commodity prices are on the rise but policy makers need to see ‘effective’ labour market slack erosion before moving towards an ‘exit’ from unconventional policies.
