The central bank doves are forcefully back following a significantly lower-than-expected US JOLTS print, and on the back of a surprisingly dovish comment from an otherwise… hawkish Isabel Schnabel from the European Central Bank (ECB).
Jolts
Released yesterday, the JOLTS data showed that the US job openings fell below 8.8 mio jobs in October – when strikes in Detroit’s three big carmakers may partly explain why the job openings saw such a meaningful decline. But whatever it is, the US offered a lot less jobs in October than it did the previous month, and that has come to cement the idea that the US jobs market is further loosening. Again, the October numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt as they were certainly impacted by the strikes, and November numbers could also be influenced by the distortions of October – meaning that we could see some robust numbers after a depressed month of October. Yet overall, the US jobs market had started giving signs of cooling before the strikes, and this week’s numbers may not be representative of the underlying trend. However, the US jobs figures gain a crucial importance as the Federal Reserve (Fed) approaches a policy pivot.
Due today, the ADP is expected to print 130K private job additions in the US last month, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast is expected to hint at a sharp decline in Q4 growth to 1.2% from above 5% printed last quarter. If that’s the case, the Fed doves will remain in charge of the market, but the everything rally will likely turn into a… bond rally as we are now at a juncture where the bond optimism might only persist with increased recession probabilities, which doesn’t bode well for equity appetite.
The EUR/USD slips into bearish consolidation zone
ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, who has been one of the most hawkish voices during the bank’s latest monetary policy tightening campaign, started to sound dovish this week. Schnabel said that inflation is slowing at a ‘remarkable’ pace. The 10-year bund yield melted to 2.23% level – last seen back in June.
Yes, but Schnabel also said that officials ‘have been surprised many times in both directions’. But traders are now set to sell the euro on dovish ECB expectations until inflation proves the contrary. The EURUSD slipped below 1.08 and to the 100-DMA, where it found some support. Following yesterday’s selloff below the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the pair is now in the bearish consolidation zone, with a strengthening bearish momentum that hints that the selloff could continue to 1.07/1.0730. Note that the market could absorb a further selloff at the current levels as the RSI is now at a mid-range: we are far from oversold conditions.
Gold sees support near the $2000 per ounce as falling US yields and fading appetite for equities continue to push capital into the precious metal.
Crude oil remains sold in a lower-highs-lower-lows pattern that paves the way for a further fall to the $70pb target, and China is not happy because Moody’s cut its outlook for the Chinese sovereign bonds to negative warning that the country’s usage of fiscal stimulus to support local governments and its spiraling property downturn pose risks to its economy. The Chinese CSI 300 fell to the lowest levels in almost 5 years, and nothing helps to undo the damage that government crackdowns and the COVID-zero policy have inflicted on investor confidence. China’s stimulus measures brought Moody’s to cut its sovereign debt outlook but couldn’t bring investors or homebuyers back to the market.
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