Fundamental Analysis

Euro Edges Lower As Investors Look For Catalyst


The euro has started losses in the Monday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1745, down 0.30% on the day. On the release front, we’ll get a look at Eurozone Consumer Confidence, which is expected to remain to remain at -1 point. There are no US events on the schedule. On Tuesday, Germany and the eurozone will release Manufacturing PMIs.

The standoff in Catalonia has continued this week. On Saturday, the central government said it was imposing direct rule, invoking Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution. However, there is plenty of uncertainty, as this clause has never been used and it is unclear what steps Madrid will take. Spanish media is reporting that the central government will strip Catalan President Carles Puigdemont of all his powers and take over Catalonia’s local police force. Unsurprisingly, the Catalan government has condemned Madrid and said it will not accept direct rule. The crisis has led to many companies in Catalonia moving their legal headquarters to Madrid, and investors are nervously watching as developments unfold in Spain, which is the eurozone’s fourth largest economy.

The Brexit clock is ticking, with Britain leaving the European Union in March 2019. However, negotiations between the parties have foundered, as the sides remain far apart on a number of key issues, including the size of Britain’s bill when it says goodbye to the club. Prime Minister May addressed the 27 EU leaders last week in Brussels, imploring the European to show some flexibility. This didn’t prevent the EU leaders from stating that trade negotiations with Britain would not commence until more progress was made on non-trade matters. Prime Minister May has a razor-thin majority in parliament, and adding to the mix, there are sharp divisions in her cabinet regarding Brexit, with some senior ministers in favor of taking a hard stance and leaving the EU without an agreement if the Europeans fail to soften their position.

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