Key Highlights
- The Euro failed near the 1.1860 level this past week against the US Dollar and moved down.
- There are two bearish trend lines formed with resistance near 1.1850 on the 4-hours chart of EUR/USD.
- The US Existing Home Sales released this past Friday posted a rise of 0.7% in Sep 2017 (MoM).
- Today, the Euro Zone’s Consumer Confidence for Oct 2017 (Prelim) will be released, which is forecasted to increase from -1.2 to -1.0.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
The Euro after a decent uptrend from the 1.1740 swing low found sellers near 1.1860 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair is currently under pressure, but trading above a crucial support at 1.1750.
The recent failure was from two bearish trend lines with resistance near 1.1850 on the 4-hours chart. Moreover, the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour), currently at 1.1855 also prevented gains this past week in EUR/USD.
The pair has already breached the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.1730 low to 1.1861 high. Therefore, there are chances of more declines below 1.1760 in the short term.
On the downside, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1750. A break and close below 1.1750 would call for a move towards 1.1730. Below 1.1730, the pair could even test the 1.236 extension of the last wave from the 1.1730 low to 1.1861 high at 1.1699.
US Existing Home Sales
This past Friday, the Existing Home Sales report for Sep 2017 was released by the National Association of Realtors. The forecast was slated for a decline of 1% in sales compared with the previous month.
The actual result was way above the forecast, as there was a rise of 0.7% in sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million. Considering the yearly change, there was a decline of 1.5% in Sep 2017.
Commenting on the report, the NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun, stated:
Home sales in recent months remain at their lowest level of the year and are unable to break through, despite considerable buyer interest in most parts of the country. Sales activity likely would have been somewhat stronger if not for the fact that parts of Texas and South Florida – hit by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma – saw temporary, but notable declines.
Overall, the EUR/USD pair might continue to struggle above 1.1800. On the flip side, the 1.1750 support area is a break point for the Euro buyers in the near term.
