- BoJ says no plans to exit easy monetary policy
- US to release ADP Employment report on Wednesday
- USD/JPY rebounds
The Japanese yen has reversed a nasty three-day slide on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.75, down 0.40%.
BoJ says monetary easing to continue
The BoJ triggered some turmoil in the currency markets last week when it unexpectedly eased its yield curve control. This raised speculation that the move marked a shift in the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy, perhaps even the beginning of the end of the policy. The yen has taken a plunge, falling over 400 basis points against the dollar over the past several days.
The BoJ has moved quickly to dampen speculation of an exit from its policy. On Wednesday, Deputy Governor Ichida said that the BoJ’s more flexible threshold for 10-year bond yields was only a modification to sustain its ultra-loose monetary position. Ichida added that the BoJ does not have “an exit from monetary easing in mind”. These comments were a repeat of BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments on Friday that the tweak to the YCC was not a step toward normalization.
Ichida’s comments had the desired effect and provided a boost to the Japanese yen on Wednesday. But for how long? Investors aren’t at all convinced that the central bank won’t shift policy, as the BoJ will often say one thing and then do the opposite in order to catch the markets by surprise. This may enable the BoJ to stay one step ahead of the speculators but it certainly does not enhance the Bank’s credibility. I would not be surprised to see the yen renew its downswing in the short term.
In the US, investors will be keeping a look at today’s ADP Employment report. The report made headlines last week with a massive gain of 497,000, fuelling speculation that nonfarm payrolls might follow suit with a banner release. In the end, nonfarm payrolls fell significantly, as expected, a reminder that ADP is not all that reliable as a precursor of nonfarm payrolls.
USD/JPY Technical
- USD/JPY is testing support at 142.63. Next is support at 141.47
- There is resistance at 143.86 and 144.37
