Market Movers ahead
- In the US, the most important data release next week will be CPI and CPI core figures for September, which we estimate will have increased.
- The coming week brings several speeches by FOMC members and the minutes from the September FOMC meeting.
- In the euro area, we look for another rise in Sentix investor confidence in October.
- China may release the Total Social Finance credit data over the next week, which will give insights into whether the crackdown on shadow finance is continuing.
- In the Scandinavian countries, inflation numbers for September are due out.
Global macro and market themes
- The world economy is growing solidly thanks to rising business and consumer confidence.
- Economic momentum should continue in 2018, although policy tightening is likely to moderate growth in some countries.
- Inflation pressures are set to remain relatively muted, allowing a gradual central bank policy normalisation.
- The scenario is bullish for global equities and moderately bearish for bonds.
- A Chinese debt meltdown or a North Korean war remain the low probability-high impact events of 2018.
