The Canadian labour market added 10.1k positions in November, with full-time employment up 50.7k and part-time employment down 40.6k.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.1%. The participation rate also fell to 64.8% (down 0.1 percentage points).
By industry, employment was up in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+21k), manufacturing (+19k), and information, culture and recreation (+16k). Losses were seen in construction (-25k), wholesale and retail trade (-23k), and professional, scientific and technical services (-15k).
Lastly, total hours worked were up 0.1% month-on-month and wages were up 5.6% year-on-year.
Key Implications
The labour market is still hot. Following October’s mammoth jobs gain, we were expecting some stabilization in today’s report. With another 10 thousand jobs gained, and full-time work dominating the underlying figures, the labour market continues to heat up. This is also apparent in the regional breakdown. With Ontario and Quebec leading the way, this is an encouraging bounce back from the weakness seen over the summer months. All this points to a likely improvement in overall consumer spending in the fourth quarter.
Today’s report reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will continue hiking its policy rate at its meeting next week. With the rate likely to get to 4.25%, the BoC will have undoubtedly reached restrictive territory. Though we haven’t seen it in the labour market data as of yet, the impact of the BoC’s aggressive moves will eventually cool the labour market. With the recent momentum, this is expected to take pace in mid to late 2023.
