Once again, investor optimism has faded quickly over the prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, European stocks sank into the close, while safe-haven gold remained poised for a fresh breakout. There’s a growing understanding by European leaders that Russia will continue it operation in Ukraine until it achieves its goals. Macron, the French President, held a telephone conversation with Putin, but it looks like the talks were fruitless. Nothing else matters right now for the markets. Tensions between Russia and the West continue to wreak havoc across financial markets and the energy sector in particular, after oil prices nearly hitting $120 per barrel earlier, before easing back.
The Ukraine conflict has added another big source of support for gold, but the precious metal was already on the rise before all this happened. The metal, which has also found additional support from the recent fall in bond yields, was already looking bright amid soaring inflationary pressures. Today we saw further evidence of that, with Eurozone Producer Prices jumping another +5.2% on month. The day before, annual CPI came in at a fresh record high of 5.8%. If you thought inflation in US or Eurozone was very high, spare a thought for Turkey, where CPI jumped to a new 20-year high of 54.4% in February. Wheat prices have broken out, while other commodities have all soared. Indeed, the Bloomberg commodity spot index has had its best week since the 1973 oil crisis:
Source: Bloomberg
Against this backdrop, I am expecting gold to go well north of $2,000. The precious metal is currently consolidating its gains after the big breakout recently. But as nothing has changed fundamentally, I expect a continuation in the ongoing bullish trend.
Source: ThinkMarkets and TradingView.com
