European futures retreated on Monday morning as the crisis in Europe continued. Russian troops continued moving into Ukraine, where they are finding stronger resistance than they had expected. During the weekend, pressure on Russia continued as a group of western countries announced new sanctions that are set to hit Russia harder. For example, the countries will disconnect Russia from the SWIFT system that is used by over 11,000 banks globally. They also announced plans to limit activities by the Bank of Russia.
The Australian dollar retreated even after the country published strong economic data. According to the country’s statistics agency, retail sales bounced back in January after they crashed by 4.4% in December. At the same time, private sector credit and housing credit also did well in January. These numbers came as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) started its second meeting of the year. Analysts expect that the bank will leave interest rates unchanged and point to a rate hike in May or June this year. At the same time, analysts expect that many Australian natural gas players will benefit from the ongoing challenges in Moscow.
The market will continue to focus on the ongoing crisis in Europe today. In addition, there will be some key economic numbers. Sweden will publish the latest GDP and retail sales numbers. Switzerland will also announce the latest GDP data while Spain will publish the flash inflation numbers for February. Several important companies will publish their quarterly results this week. Some of those that will publish their results are Ambarella, Workday, TaskUs, and Nielsen Holdings.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1146, which is a bit higher than last week’s low of 1.1100. On the four-hour chart, the pair is slightly above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and slightly above the 25-day moving average. The MACD has made a bullish crossover while the Relative Strength Index is pointing downwards. Therefore, the pair will likely resume the downward trend as investors assess the impact of sanctions.
EURCAD
The EURCAD continued its downward trend on Monday morning. It is trading at 1.4273, which is substantially lower than this month’s high of 1.4633. On the four-hour chart, the pair has moved between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It is also below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling in the next few days.
USDZAR
The USDZAR pair rose on Monday morning as investors moved to the safety of the US dollar. It is trading at 15.35, which is slightly lower than last week’s high of 15.28. On the four-hour chart, the pair is slightly above the 25-day moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved from the overbought level. Therefore, the pair will likely continue moving higher in the near term.
