Riksbank Pencils In 1st Potential Rate Hike During Latter Point Of 2024

Notes/Observations

• Riksbank keeps policy steady as expected and tweaked its forward guidance to see a rate hike in the latter part of 2024.

Asia

• Bank of Korea (BoK) raised 7-Day Repo Rate by 25bps to 1.00% (as expected); signals that more hikes could come.

Coronavirus

• Italy Cabinet said to place new tougher COVID rules for vaccinated beginning Dec 6th through Jan 15th. Unvaccinated could not use cinemas, restaurants, hotels and gyms.

Europe

• ECB’s Schnabel (Germany) stated that Inflation would start to slowly normalize starting in January; Did not see serious risk of stagflation.
• ECB’s Makhlouf: Inflation drivers to recede in 2022; personal view that rate hikes are not needed.
• Swedish PM Andersson has resigned hours after being named new PM; Coalition partner Greens leave coalition after they could not reach budget agreement.

Americas

• FOMC Nov Minutes noted that the number of participants discussed that long-term inflation expectations might increase above long-run objective; Delta wave had intensified the impediments to supply chain. Some participants suggested that reducing the pace of net asset purchases by more than $15B/month could be warranted so that the Committee would be in a better position to make adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.47% at 481.96, FTSE +0.19% at 7,300.26, DAX +0.44% at 15,948.51, CAC-40 +0.36% at 7,067.52, IBEX-35 +0.52% at 8,837.52, FTSE MIB +0.47% at 27,237.00, SMI +0.50% at 12,457.64, S&P 500 Futures +0.30%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes:

Equities

• European indices open generally higher following few sessions of losses; better performing sectors include industrials and consumer discretionary; laggard sectors include financials; Remy Cointreau in Paris trades higher over 10% following its final half-year results and upgraded profit outlook; Swiss insurance giant Swiss Life presented new targets during its investor day as well as announced share buyback, also trading higher about 3%; on M&A front, UK firm Vivo Energy received offer to be acquired, its shares rose almost 20% on London Stock Exchange; As a reminder, US markets will be closed today and set for earlier close tomorrow due to Thanksgiving holiday; S&P500 futures currently stand up 0.3%.
• Consumer discretionary: Remy Cointreau [RCO.FR] +11% (final earnings; raises profit outlook), Studio Retail Group [STU.UK] -19% (earnings), Eco Animal Health [EAH.UK] -16% (earnings).
• Energy: Vivo Energy [VVO.UK] +20% (takeover offer).
• Financials: Swiss Life [SLHN.CH] +3% (CMD).

Speakers

• EU said to endorse 9-month limit on COVID vaccine validity in travel purposes.
• Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Policy Statement noted that inflation was expected to be on target going forward. It tweaked its forward guidance and now saw a rate hike in latter part of 2024 (**Note: prior view was expected to remain at zero for entire forecast period, at least until Q3 2024). Announced that it would purchase bonds during Q1 2022 while holdings will gradually decrease after 2022.
• Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves post-rate decision press conference noted that an expansionary policy was needed for inflation at target.
• German Bundesbank Financial Stability report stressed that now was time to act against future risks.
• Poland Central Bank’s Hardt stated that the Nov inflation reading was probably higher than 7%.
• Japan Cabinet Office Monthly Report maintained its overall economic assessment that the recovery was continuing to improve from an extremely low base but pace was weakening.
• China Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian: Ready to crush Taiwan independence bid at any time.
• China and US said to be planning meeting of their top defense officials by end-2021.
• Iraq Oil Min Jabbar stated that OPEC did not want to lose success because oil markets remained fragile.

Currencies/Fixed Income

• USD held on to its recent strength as the most recent FOMC minutes should that various policymakers said they would be open to speeding up the taper of their bond-buying program if high inflation held. Fed also hinting it could more quickly to raise interest rates.
• GBP/USD was softer despite dealers suggested that post-Brexit relations between the UK and EU might not suffer a further breakdown imminently.
• EUR/SEK steady at 10.19 area after the Riksbank penciled in its first potential rate hike toward the end of 2024.

Economic data

• (FI) Finland Oct Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -0.9% v +2.7% prior.
• (DE) Germany Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.7% v 1.8% prelim; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5% prelim; GDP WDA (unadj) Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5% prelim.
• (DE) Germany Q3 Private Consumption Q/Q: 6.2% v 4.8%e; Government Spending Q/Q: -2.2% v +0.4%e; Capital Investment Q/Q: -2.2% v 0.0%e.
• (DE) Germany Dec GfK Consumer Confidence: -1.6 v -1.0e.
• (DK) Denmark Oct Retail Sales M/M: +1.7% v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.5% v +3.0% prior.
• (NO) Norway Sept AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.6% v 3.9%e.
• (ES) Spain Oct PPI M/M: 6.1% v 5.4% prior; Y/Y: 31.9% v 23.8% prior (highest annual pace in almost 5 decades).
• (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) left Repo Rate unchanged at 0.00% (as expected).
• (SE) Sweden Oct PPI M/M: 0.1% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 16.8% v 17.2% prior.
• (SE) Sweden Oct Household Lending Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.5% prior.
• (HK) Hong Kong Oct Trade Balance (HKD): -30.5B v -46.1Be; Exports Y/Y: 21.4% v 20.7%e; Imports Y/Y: 17.7% v 19.5%e.
• (IS) Iceland Nov CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.5% prior.
• (PL) Poland Oct Unemployment Rate: 5.5% v 5.5%e.
• (ZA) South Africa Oct PPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 8.1% v 8.0%e.

Fixed income Issuance

• (SE) Sweden sold total SEK1.25B in I/L 2030 and 2039 Bonds.
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €2.25B vs. €1.75-2.25B indicated range in 0.00% Jan 2024 BTP bonds; Avg Yield: -0.26% v -0.23% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.45x v 1.65x prior.
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €1.0B vs. €0.75-1.0B indicated range in 0.40% May 2030 I/L Bonds (BTPei); Real Yield: -0.65% v -0.85% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.46x v 1.41x prior.

Looking ahead

• (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report.
• (AR) Argentina Nov Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 40.2 prior.
• 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell HUF20B in 12-month Bills.
• 06:00 (CA) Canada Nov CFIB Business Barometer: No est v 60.5 prior.
• 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior.
• 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell 3.25% 2026 Bonds.
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil mid-Nov IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 1.1%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 10.7%e v 10.3% prior.
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.3%e v -0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 4.5%e v 4.6% prelim; GDP Nominal Y/Y: No est v 29.6% prior.
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Sept IGEA Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: +0.3%e v -1.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 4.3% prior.
• 07:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Current Account Balance: -$4.8Be v -$1.7B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $4.0Be v $4.5B prior.
• 07:30 (EU) ECB Account of October Policy Decision (Minutes).
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 19th: No est v $626.2B prior.
• 09:00 (BE) Belgium Nov Business Confidence: 3.6e v 4.0 prior.
• 09:05 (YK) BOE’s Haskel.
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Q3 Current Account Balance: -$5.0Be v $6.3B prior.
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Nov Minutes.
• 12:00 (UK) BOE Gov Bailey.
• 14:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 4.5% prior; Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 245.2% prior.
• 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Nov Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 98 prior.
• 18:30 (JP) Japan Nov Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior; CPI (ex-fresh food) Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; CPI (ex-fresh food/energy) Y/Y: -0.3%e v -0.4% prior.
• 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct Retail Sales M/M: 2.2%e v 1.3% prior.
• 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.
• 23:00 (MY) Malaysia Oct CPI Y/Y: 2.8%e v 2.2% prior.