Notes/Observations
- European indices trading sideways ahead of US payroll data.
- Corporate front: Companies due to report during the NY morning include DraftKings, Canopy Growth, Norwegian Cruise Line, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Dominion Energy, Inc., etc.
Asia
- (CN) China Q2 Preliminary Current Account Balance: $52.8B v $69.4B prior.
- (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY (SOMP): Will act if worsening health outcomes hit economic outlook.
- (IN) INDIA CENTRAL BANK (RBI) LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.00%; AS EXPECTED.
Coronavirus
- UK govt added Germany, Austria, Norway, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia to its ‘green list’.
Europe
- Italy PM Draghi: Expects Italian economy to continue to do well, committed to beginning school year with face to face teaching.
Mid-East
- Israel fires artillery into southern Lebanon in retaliation for second day of rocket attacks from the area.
Americas
- US futures steady ahead of July Non-Farm payroll report, forecast for 870K jobs added inline with the prior month.
Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum
Equities
- Indices [Stoxx600 0.00% at 469.98, FTSE % at #, DAX +0.13% at 15,765.15, CAC-40 -0.01% at 6,780.55, IBEX-35 -0.22% at 8,817.00, FTSE MIB +0.47% at 25,786.50, SMI +0.07% at 12,208.75, S&P 500 Futures +0.01%].
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open mixed and failed to gain direction as the session wore on; sectors trending to the upside include financials and health care; sectors trending to the downside include materials and utilities; DAX supported by better than expected results from Allianz; insurance subsector supported by UK government scheme to support live events; Marks announces to acquisitions along with earnings; focus on upcoming NFP later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Gannett, Spectrum Brands, Fluor and Dominion Energy.
Equities
- Financials: Allianz [ALV.DE] +2.5% (earnings), ING Group [INGA.NL] +1% (earnings), London Stock Exchange [LSEG.UK] +4% (earnings).
- Industrials: Airbus [AIR.FR] -1% (deliveries), Maersk [MAERSKB.DK] -1% (final earnings; acquisitions).
- Materials: Covestro [1COV.DE] -1% (earnings).
Speakers
- (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Gov Lowe: Outbreaks mean GDP likely to decline in Sept quarter, Does not expect to raise cash rate before 2024 – statement ahead of SOMP release.
- (IN) Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Das: High-frequency indicators suggest consumption are on demand of regaining traction
Currencies/Fixed Income
- Quiet FX session ahead of US jobs data
- Cable steady following BoE rate decision yesterday, consolidating above $1.39.
- Bank of Italy targeting debt reduction in July to €492B from €521B in June, with funding to banks steady at €463.7B
Economic data
- (CN) China Q2 Preliminary Current Account Balance: $52.8B v $69.4B prior
- (DE) GERMANY JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -1.3% V +0.5%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 7.9%E.
- (UK) JULY HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: +0.4% V -0.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: +7.6% V 8.8% PRIOR
- (FR) FRANCE JUN TRADE BALANCE: -€5.8B V -€6.2BE.
- (IS) Iceland July Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): -16.1B v -30.2B prior.
- (IT) Italy Jun Industrial Production M/M: 1.0% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 13.9% v 13.4%e
- (SE) Sweden July Budget Balance (SEK): +8.1B v -34.0B prior.
- (AT) Austria July Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.5% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 12.1% v 11.2% prior.
- (ES) Spain Jun Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 11.1% v 13.5%e.
- (ES) Spain Jun House transactions Y/Y: 73.5% v 107.6% prior.
- (CH) Swiss July Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 923.2B v 941.4B prior.
- (CZ) Czech Jun National Trade Balance (CZK): -6.9B v +19.8Be.
- (CZ) Czech Jun Industrial Output Y/Y: 11.4% v 8.7%e.
- (HU) Hungary Jun Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v +3.3% prior; Y/Y: 18.6% v 17.5%e.
- (HU) Hungary Jun Preliminary Trade Balance: €0.7B v €0.1B prior.
- (IT) Bank of Italy July Balance-Sheet Aggregates: Target2 Liabilities at €492.2B v €521.5B prior.
Fixed income Issuance
- Non seen yet.
Looking Ahead
- (MX) Mexico May Gross Fixed Investment: % v 45.4%e.
- (MX) Mexico July Vehicle Production: K v 264.0K prior.
- (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e July 30th: $B v $611.1B prior.
- (CL) Chile July CPI M/M: % v 0.4%e; Y/Y: % v 4.1%e.
- (US) July Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: + 870Ke v +850K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +709Ke v +662K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +28Ke v +15K prior.
- US) July Unemployment Rate: 5.7%e v 5.9% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 9.8% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8%e v 61.6% prior.
- (US) July Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 3.6% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.7e v 34.7 prior.
- (CA) Canada July Net Change in Employment: +1505.0Ke v +230.7K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.4%e v 7.8% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v -33.2K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +263.9K prior; Participation Rate: 65.5%e v 65.2% prior; Hourly Wage Rate Y/Y: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior.
- (RU) Russia July Official Reserve Assets: $597.4Be v $597.5B prior.
- (US) Jun Final Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.8%e v 0.8% prelim; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: No est v 0.8% prior.
- CA) Canada July Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (seasonally Adj): No est v 71.9 prior; PMI (unadj): No est v 67.7 prior.
- (TR) Turkey July Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -7.2B prior.
- (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.
- (US) Jun Consumer Credit: $23.0Be v $35.3B.
