Focus On The Much Anticipated US CPI Data

Notes/Observations

• Focus on US may CPI data with YoY expected to accelerate to 4.7%; Fed had been unified that inflation pressures were transitory.
• ECB expected to maintain its pandemic bond-buying program pace.
• ECB Staff Projections long-term inflation forecasts may well remain below the current ECB inflation objective.
• Various Nordic May inflation data eased from month-ago levels (Norway and Sweden both missed YoY consensus).

Asia:

• China PBOC Gov Yi Gang stated that he saw 2021 CPI under 2.0% (Note: compares to 3.0% official target) and expected China GDP expansion to be close to the potential growth rate.
• Japan May PPI data registered the highest annual rate since Sept 2008 (YoY4.9% v 4.5%e).
• More reports that a growing number of Japanese officials expected PM Suga to call for a snap election in Sept and expected to direct ministries to consider a major economic stimulus package as early as this summer.
• Bank of Korea (BOK) Senior Official stated that one or two rate hikes were not tightening.

Coronavirus:

• Total cases 175.2M (+0.2% d/d); Total deaths: 3.78M (+0.4% d/d).
• Draft G7 communique noted that it would commit to paying for 1B extra COVID vaccines and call for a new study into the origins of COVID.

Europe:

• BOE’s Haldane (chief economist, QE dissenter) stated that he believed that was the most dangerous moment for monetary policy since 1992. He noted that if resurgent demand met shrinking or static supply, laws of the economic gravity meant persistent price pressure will be hard to escape.
• President Biden said to have has ordered officials to give UK PM Johnson an extraordinary diplomatic rebuke for risking the Good Friday Agreement and increasing tensions between EU-Ireland over Brexit.

Americas:

• President Biden stated that US commitment to NATO was rock solid and was not seeking conflict with Russia. US would respond in a robust and meaningful way when Russia engage in harmful activities.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx50 flat at 4,095, FTSE +0.3% at 7,101, DAX -0.1% at15,570, CAC-40 -0.3% at 6,547, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 9,135, FTSE MIB -0.7% at 25,569, SMI flat at 11,790, S&P 500 Futures flat].
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open modestly higher but later slipped to trade mixed; sectors leading to the upside include technology and health care; sectors starting the day in the red include energy and consumer discretionary; Altice takes stake in BT; reportedly EssilorLuxottica to sell a portfolio of shops; focus on upcoming ECB rate decision, “Atlantic charter” agreement between UK and US; earnings expected later in the US session include Signet Jewelers.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Remy Cointreau RCO.FR +1.4% (analyst action), Stroeer SAX.DE +6.2% (analyst action), Basic-Fit BFIT.NL -4.2% (share offer), DFS Furniture DFS.UK. +12.9% (trading update), windeln.de WDL.DE -29.4% (reddit talk).
• Energy: Serica Energy SQZ.UK +6.6% (operational results).
• Financials: CMC Markets CMCX.UK +0.9% (results).
• Healthcare: Oxurion OXUR.BE +3.4% (start of Phase II trial).
• Industrials: Aixtron AIXA.DE+13.8% (guidance), BMW BMW.DE -1.5% (analyst action), Fraport FRA.DE -0.9% (analyst action), Stellantis STLA.NL -2.3% (French diesel investigation).
• Technology: Soitec SOI.FR +7.8% (strategy announcement).
• Telecom: BT BT.A.UK +2.7% (Altice takes stake).

Speakers

• EU Commission President Von Der Leyen stated that saw fundamental gaps in the execution of the Northern Ireland Protocol. To discuss Northern Ireland Protocol in a tri-lateral meeting at G7. Reiterated that EU had shown flexibility and would continue to do so. There were no unilateral actions on Brexit but possible to move forward within the agreed framework to have remedial measures.
• EU Council President Michel: G7 partners share similar views on Russia’s disruptive activities.
• Ireland PM Martin noted that US President Biden’s intervention in Northern Ireland Protocol was significant; needed engagement from UK side but Believed they could trust UK PM on Irish protocol.
• Philippines Central Bank Gov Diokno reiterated its stance to maintain a loose monetary policy for as long as needed.
• Singapore Govt announced that it would relax restrictions in stages as virus cases dwindled but were in a position at this time to ease some measures. To increase event size and capacity but would only ease travel rules and mask requirement when more of the population was vaccinated. Saw 50% of the population vaccinated by end-Aug and 75% vaccinated by end-Oct.
• China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin reiterated the stance that Wuhan Lab was the source of coronavirus; the leak was nothing but a rumor.
• China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) spokesperson Gao Feng reiterated the view that the essence of US ties was mutually beneficial; trade teams remained in contact.

Currencies/Fixed Income

• USD on firmer footing ahead of May CPI data.
• EUR/USD roughly steady at 1.2160. Focus on ECB’s message. Dealers believe today’s decision would price out any near-term tapering of QE and broadly maintain the current PEPP purchase pace in 3Q of around €80B/month. A reduction could be due to seasonal factors (summer).
• GBP/USD dips to 1-month lows as a dispute between the UK and European Union over trade with Northern Ireland escalated. Pair at 1.4075 by mid-session.

Economic data

• (NL) Netherlands Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.2% v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: 12.7% v 3.3% prior Industrial Sales Y/Y: 18.5% v 10.1% prior.
• (FI) Finland Apr Industrial Production M/M: +1.8% v -2.2% prior; Y/Y: +3.1% v -2.4% prior.
• (FR) France Q1 Final Private Sector Payrolls Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Total Payrolls: 0.3% v 0.2%e.
• (NO) Norway May CPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.9%e.
• (NO) Norway May CPI Underlying M/M: -0.4% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.0%e.
• (NO) Norway May PPI (including Oil) M/M: 2.8% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 29.4% v 22.5% prior.
• (DK) Denmark May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e.
• (DK) Denmark May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.5% prior.
• (FR) France Apr Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v +0.6%e; Y/Y: 43.9% v 44.9%e.
• (FR) France Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.3% v +1.0%e; Y/Y: 49.3% v 50.7%e.
• (CZ) Czech May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.1%e.
• (CZ) Czech Apr Export Price Index Y/Y: 1.1% v 2.5% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: 0.3% v 1.6% prior.
• (TR) Turkey Apr Unemployment Rate: 13.9% v 13.0% prior.
• (AT) Austria Apr Industrial Production M/M: 1.7% v 3.5% prior; Y/Y: 35.9% v 13.5% prior.
• (SE) Sweden May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.0%e; CPI Level: 341.04 v 341.61e.
• (SE) Sweden May CPIF M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.2%e.
• (SE) Sweden May CPIF (ex-energy) M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4%e.
• (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Production M/M: 1.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 79.5% v 72.2%e; Industrial Production NSA (unadj) Y/Y: 81.0% v 41.6% prior.
• (CN) China May M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.3% v 8.1%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 6.2% prior; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 5.3% prior.
• (CN) China May Aggregate Financing (CNY): 1.920T v 2.00Te.
• (CN) China May New Yuan Loans (CNY): 1.500T v 1.40Te.
• (ZA) South Africa Q1 Current Account Balance (ZAR): 267B v 209Be; Current Account to GDP Ratio: 5.0% v 4.3%e.
• (GR) Greece Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 22.5% v 5.7% prior.
• (GR) Greece May CPI Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.3% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.1% prior.

Fixed income Issuance

• (SE) Sweden sold SEK1.25B in 0.125% Jun 2030 I/L bonds; Avg Yield: -1.5305% v -1.5448% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.44x v 1.40x prior.

Looking Ahead

• (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• OPEC Monthly Report.
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell €6.25-7.25B in 3-year, 7-year, and 20-year BTP Bonds.
• (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) to sell €1.0-1.25B in 2029, 2037 and 2045 IGB bonds.
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Apr Total Mining Production M/M: No est v 4.5% prior; Y/Y: 110.0%e v 21.3% prior; Gold Production Y/Y: No est v 10.5% prior; Platinum Production Y/Y: No est v 68.6% prior.
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills;.
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland May CPI M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.1% prior.
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.1% prior.
• 06:00 (IL) Israel May Consumer Confidence: No est v 148 prior.
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.5%e v 3.4% prior; Y/Y: 88.5%e v 4.6% prior.
• 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank comments on May CPI data (released earlier in session).
• 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave key rates unchanged; Expected to leave Main 7-Day Refinancing Rate unchanged at 0.00%; Expected to leave Marginal Lending Facility unchanged at 0.25%; Expected to leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at -0.50%.
• 08:00 (IS) Iceland May Unemployment Rate: No est v 11.5% prior.
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 08:05 (UK) BOE’s Haldane (dissenter on QE, the chief economist).
• 08:30 (US) May CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.2% prior.
• 08:30 (US) May CPI (ex-food/energy) M/M: 0.5%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.0% prior.
• 08:30 (US) May CPI Index NSA: 268.681e v 267.054 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 275.058e v 273.7 prior.
• 08:30 (US) May Real Avg Hourly Earning Y/Y: No est v -3.7% prior; Real Avg Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v -1.4% prior.
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 370Ke v 385K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.65Me v 3.771M prior.
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.
• 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Economists Survey.
• 08:30 (EU) ECB chief Lagarde post rate decision press conference.
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jun 4th: No est v $605.9B prior.
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills.
• 12:00 (US) Q1 Financial Account Household Change in Net Worth: No est v $6.925T prior.
• 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 30-Year Bonds Reopening.
• 14:00 (US) May Monthly Budget Statement: -$250.0Be v -$225.6B prior.
• 17:00 (KR) South Korea Import Price Index M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.0% prior.
• 17:00 (KR) South Korea Export Price Index M/M: No est v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.6% prior.
• 18:30 (NZ) New Zealand May Manufacturing PMI: No est v 58.4 prior.
• 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank (BCRP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 0.25%.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan Q2 BSI Large All Industry Q/Q: -5.5e v -4.5 prior; Large Manufacturing Q/Q: No est v 1.6 prior.
• 23:00 (CN) China to sell 30-Yr Upsize Bond.
• 23:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.