Market Attention Shifts To Employment Data

Jun 03 21, 11:42 GMT

There was low volatility in the FX market yesterday with the USD maintaining a rather sideways motion against a basket of currencies, while US stockmarkets and gold displayed a similar behavior. Fundamentally there seems little to move the USD right now, albeit on global level the economic recovery seems to be weakening the USD as the economic outlook improves in other countries as well. The market’s attention is now turning to the employment data which are to be released today in expectance also for May’s US employment report due out tomorrow. At the same time markets continue to closely watch Fed officials, for any shift in tone that could imply anything different from the current dovish stance of the Fed, which in turn could provide some support for the USD.

The USD index maintained a sideways motion yesterday between the 90.25 (R1) resistance line and the 89.65 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain our bias for a sideways motion technically, given also that the RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart remains near the reading of 50 and may imply that the market still hasn’t decided on the direction of its next leg. Should the bulls gain control over the Index’s direction, we may see it breaking the upper boundary, being the 90.25 (R1) resistance line, which capped the index’s price action since the 19th of May and start aiming for the 90.75 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears be in charge, we may see the index breaking the 89.65 (S1) support line and aim for the 89.15 (S2) support level, which was tested for the last time on the 6th of January.

Pound remains stable as possible reopening delays weigh

The pound tended to remain stable, in a sideways motion against the USD, the common currency and JPY yesterday as the market has started to worry fundamentally for the possibility of June’s reopening of the economy to be delayed. Worries for the Indian variant of Covid tend to weigh on the pound, as the variant is highly transmittable and UK PM Johnson stated yesterday that he would be cautious in lifting further restrictions in June, at least until recent data are released. Hence plans for lifting the restrictions on June 21st may be dependant of the forthcoming data, creating some uncertainty for the pound traders. Today we note the release of UK’s final PMI figures for May, yet we also highlight the speech of BoE Governor Bailey. GBP/USD maintained a tight rangebound movement, at some point testing the 1.4145 (S1) support line. We maintain our bias for a continuance of cable’s sideways movement, also given that the RSI indicator below the 4-hour chart runs along the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market. The pair has stabilised at a rather high level and should the market display a selling interest we may see cable, breaking the 1.4145 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.3990 (S2) support level. On the other hand, should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we may see GBP/USD breaking the 1.4275 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.4390 (R2) resistance level.

Other economic highlights today and the following Asian session:

Today during the European session, we get Turkey’s CPI rate for May, Eurozone’s final services and composite PMI figures for May as well as UK’s final PMI figures for the same month. In the American session we highlight the US employment data due out, namely the ADP National employment figure for May as well as the weekly initial jobless claims figure. From the US we also note the release of the ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading for May , while oil traders may be more interested in the release of the weekly EIA crude oil inventories figure. Please note that in the late American session BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Fed Vice Chair Quarles are scheduled to speak. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we get from Japan the All Household spending growth rate for April.

USD Index H4 Chart