Notes/Observations
- Japan PPI reading the most recent in string of hotter inflation data highlighting supply chain and input cost pressures.
- Week will see another deluge of Treasury supply.
- ECB weekly QE bond purchases in focus as new quarterly data emerge.
Asia:
- Japan Mar PPI registered ist 1st YoY increase in 13 months (M/M: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.5%e.
- China CASS researcher Zhang Bin stated that PBOC should take their lead from the Fed and adopt more aggressive monetary policy to increase consumption.
Coronavirus:
- Total global cases 135.9M (+1.5%); total deaths: 2.94M (+1.2%)
- Israeli study suggested Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine may be less effective against South African variant.
Europe:
- ECB’s Panetta (Italy) stated that not be prudent to bet on a rapid recovery with a significant risk of divergence. Inflation to temporarily increase this year due to some transitory factors that will fade out in 2022.
- Certain UK business officials and MPs are looking to improve the Brexit Trade deal via setting up independent commission.
- German CSU and CDU party chiefs said to be prepared to run for Chancellor in the Sept elections. CSU leader Soeder said declared willingness to run for the chancellorship. CDU leader Laschet: to settle on the candidate soon.
Americas:
- Fed Chair Powell stated that would keep supporting the economy until recovery was complete, one risk was opening too quickly; studying digital currencies but no decision made, could be a benefit but involves subtle,
Energy:
- Iranian nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz said to have stopped production due to a cyber-attack.
Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum
Equities
- Indices [Stoxx600 -0.32% at 435.82, FTSE -0.55% at 6,877.41 , DAX +0.06% at 15,244.10 , CAC-40 -0.03% at 6,167.39, IBEX-35 -0.64% at 8,511.00 , FTSE MIB +0.17% at 24,470.50 , SMI -0.22% at 11,207.16 , S&P 500 Futures -0.22%]
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open modestly lower and trended downwards (with Dax and FTSE MIB notable exceptions in the green); sectors with better performance include technology and industrials; Veolia and Suez agree on merger; Valneva supported by Friday’s announcement to list on NASDAQ; Diasorin to acquire Luminex; while financials and consumer discretionary sectors among those trending to the downside; Hammerson confirms looking to sell retail parks portfolio; no major equities events scheduled for the upcoming US session.
Equities
- Consumer discretionary: Deliveroo [ROO.UK] +1% (Amazon discloses stake)
- Energy: Suez [SEV.FR] +7% (merger with Veolia)
- Healthcare: Diasorin [DIA.IT] +9% (acquires Luminex), Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI [ROVI.ES] +4% (partnership with Moderna), AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] -1% (trial did not meet endpoint)
Speakers
- Sweden Finance Ministry updates its forecasts which raised the 2021 GDP growth forecast from 3.0% to 3.2% and also raised 2022 GDP growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.8%. Fin Min Andersson stated that recovery should pick up pace in H2.
- German Industrial Association (BDI) cut its 2021 GDP growth from 3.5% to 3.0%.
- German VDMA Engineering association raised its 2021 production forecast from 4.0% to 7.0%. Majority of companies in survey say they want to hire staff in 2021.
- Hong Kong Chief Exec Lam: To consider relaxing some social-distancing measures if more people receive their first shot of Covid-19 vaccines.
- EU said to imposed provisional tariffs on imports of aluminum flat-rolled products originating in China. Set provisional tariffs 19.3% to 46.7% on China aluminum products.
Currencies/Fixed Income
- FX markets noted the upcoming deluge of Treasury supply. For Monday auctions include $58B in 3-year notes and $38B in 10-year notes. Tuesday will have the Treasury issue $24B in 30-year bonds. Focus turns to US CPI data to be released on Tuesday.
- EUR/USD drifted lower in quiet trading and well contained within its recent quarterly range (1.15-1.20). – ECB weekly QE bond purchases in focus as new quarterly data emerges after recent pledge to significantly increase its PEPP buying in Q2
- GBP/USD rebounded after a dismal showing last week. Cable did hold the pivotal 1.36 support level and was firmly back above 1.37 in trading. Cable had been soft over concerns over the vaccination pace.
Economic data
- (SE) Sweden Apr SEB Housing-Price Indicator: 63 v 61 prior.
- (FI) Finland Feb Current Account Balance: €0.4B v €0.2B prior.
- (JP) Japan Mar Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 65.0% v 36.7% prior.
- (NO) Norway Q1 House Price Index Q/Q: 3.4% v 2.9% prior.
- (NO) Norway Feb Overall GDP M/M: -0.7% v -0.9% prior; GDP Mainland M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e.
- (DK) Denmark Feb Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v +2.0% prior.
- (DK) Denmark Mar CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.6% prior.
- (DK) Denmark Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.5% prior.
- (TR) Turkey Feb Current Account Balance: -2.6B v -$2.5Be.
- (TR) Turkey Feb Unemployment Rate: 13.4% v 12.7% prior.
- (CN) China Mar Aggregate Financing (CNY): 3.34T v 3.701Te.
- CN) China Mar New Yuan Loans (CNY): 2.730T v 2.30Te.
- (CN) China Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.4% v 9.5%e.
- (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 701.3B v 701.8B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 627.5B v 626.0B prior.
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI): Feb Non-performing loans (NPL): €52.0B v €51.7M prior.
- (IS) Iceland Mar Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): -21.4B v -11.9B prior.
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Retail Sales M/M: 3.0% v 1.7%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -5.3%e.
Fixed income Issuance
- (IN) India sold total INR360B vs. INR360B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.
- (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.16% v 0.14% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.61x v 2.28x prior.
Looking Ahead
- (FR) Bank of France Mar Industrial (Business) Sentiment: 101e v 99 prior.
- (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in 6-month Bubills.
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays)
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2023, 2026, 2030 and 2031 bonds.
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON200M 4.25% 2036 Bonds.
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey sells 2023 and 2026 bond.
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Economist Survey.
- 08:00 (IN) India Mar CPI Y/Y: 5.5%e v 5.0% prior.
- 08:00 (IN) India Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: -3.0%e v -1.6% prior.
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland Mar Unemployment Rate: No est v 12.5% prior.
- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
- 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size on upcoming issuance.
- 09:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Ohlsson.
- 09:00 (UK) BOE’s Tenreyro at Webinar.
- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.3-6.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.
- 09:45 (EU) ECB weekly QE bond buying update
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Q1 Overall Business Outlook Survey: No est v 1.3 prior.
- Business Future Sales Outlook: No est v 48 prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $58B in 3-Year Notes.
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $38B in 10-Year Notes Reopening.
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Total Formal Job Creation: No est v +115.3K prior.
- 14:00 (US) Mar Monthly Budget Statement: -$658.0Be v -$310.9B prior.
- 17:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.
- (MX) Mexico Mar ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v -1.5% prior.
- 18:45 (NZ) New Zealand Mar Total Card Spending M/M: No est v -3.2% prior; Retail Card Spending M/M: No est v -2.5% prior.
- 19:01 (UK) Mar BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: No est v 9.5% prior.
- 19:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 107.7 prior.
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Mar M3 Money Stock Y/Y: No est v 8.0% prior; M2 Money Stock Y/Y: No est v 9.6% prior.
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Mar NAB Business Confidence: No est v 16 prior; Business Conditions: No est v 15 prior.
- 22:30 (KR) South Korea to sell KRW1.2T in 2-year Bonds.
- 23:00 (KR) South Korea Feb M2 Money Supply M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; “L” Money Supply M/M: No est v 1.1% prior.
- 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.
