Notes/Observations
- Inflation data in focus
- China’s Feb credit data seen better than expected In February despite Lunar New Year holiday
Asia
- China Feb CPI Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.3%e
- RBA Gov Lowe stated that the recovery in employment had been V-shaped, close to recovering to pre-pandemic levels, to consider case for extending bond buying later this year, not considering removing 3-year yield target or changing from 0.10%
Europe
- EU governments said to back legal action against the UK
- SNB Official Zurbruegg welcomed the recent weakening of the CHF currency (Franc). Stressed it was too early to talk about a rate rise. Negative interest rates and currency market interventions remained necessary. SNB could ease policy further if necessary
Americas
- Treasury Sec Yellen: city economies will look more like 2019 than than 2020 in 2021; helping cities is very good economic policy
Energy
- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: +12.8M v +7.4M prior
Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum
Equities
- Indices [Stoxx600 % at #, FTSE -0.06% at 6,726.12, DAX +0.40% at 14,495.00, CAC-40 +0.62% at 5,961.46, IBEX-35 +0.32% at 8,524.00, FTSE MIB +0.32% at 23,893.50, SMI +0.03% at 10,861.48, S&P 500 Futures +0.19%]
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open modestly lower but later turned to trade mixed with a positive bias; sectors among better performers are telecom and materials; consumer discretionary and industrials sectors among those weighted on the downside; Rallye to sell Go Sport; Ruffini placed shares fo Moncler focus on upcoming CPI data from US; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Oracle and Pirelli, plus Bayer capital markets day
Equities
- Consumer discretionary: Adidas [ADS.DE] +3% (earnings; outlook), Legal & General Group [LGEN.UK] +1% (earnings), Restaurant Group [RTN.UK] +12% (earnings), Inditex [ITX.ES] -1% (earnings)
- Financials: Foxtons [FOXT.UK] +2% (earnings)
- Industrials: Leonardo [LDO.IT] +6% (earnings), Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK] -2% (earnings)
Speakers
- Russia Central Bank Zabotkin (Monetary Policy Chief) stated that saw end-2021 CPI at the upper end of 3.7-4.2% range
- Poland Central Bank’s Kropiwnicki (hawk) stated that he was not alarmed by higher inflation in H1
- Taiwan Central Bank commented that the inflation outlook to remain modest. It saw significant growth in private consumption
- Brazil Lower House said to pass emergency bill base text in 1st round **Note: **Note: Approval of the Emergency bill seen as key to keep fiscal credibility and reinforcing the spending cap by use of triggers that contain spending)
Currencies/ Fixed Income
- USD was slightly softer during a very quiet EU session. Focus turned to US CPI data due out during the NY morning. Dealers noting that a potentially strong US economic recovery, rising bond yields should keep the greenback on firm footing for now.
- EU peripheral and core bond yields were slightly lower in the session with focus turning to ECB’s policy decision on Thursday. ECB would reiterate its resolve to maintain favorable financing conditions to help the economy recover from the pandemic
Economic data
- (NL) Netherlands Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: 2.4% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.6 v 0.2% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -9.9% v -5.7% prior
- (FI) Finland Jan Industrial Production M/M: +1.0% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: +0.9% v -2.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Jan Preliminary Trade Balance: -€0.3B v +€1.0B prior
- (NO) Norway Feb CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.1%e (2nd straight month above target)
- (NO) Norway Feb Underlying CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.9%e
- (NO) Norway Feb PPI (including oil) M/M: 5.4% v 5.3% prior; Y/Y: 9.7%s v 0.6% prior
- (DK) Denmark Feb CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6% prior
- (DK) Denmark Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.4% prior
- (FR) France Jan Industrial Production M/M: 3.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -2.8%e
- (FR) France Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: 3.3% v 1.8%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -3.9% prior
- (TR) Turkey Jan Unemployment Rate: 12.2% v 12.6% prior
- (CZ) Czech Feb CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.2%e
- (CN) China Feb Aggregate Financing (CNY): 1.710T v 910Be
- (CN) China Feb New Yuan Loans (CNY): 1.360T v 950Be
- (CN) China Feb M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.1% v 9.4%e
- (IT)) Italy Jan PPI M/M: % v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v -1.8% prior
- (GR) Greece Jan Industrial Production Y/Y: % v 3.5% prior
- (GR) Greece Feb CPI Y/Y: -1.3% v -2.0% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.4% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Q1 BER Business Confidence: 35 v 42e
Fixed income Issuance
- (IN) India sold total INR190B vs. INR190B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.12B in 3-month, 6-month, 9-month and 12-month bills
- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK5.0B vs. SEK5.0B indicated in 2023 and 2032 Bonds
- (UK) DMO sold £800M in new 0.125% Aug 2031 I/L Gilts (UKTi); Real Yield: -2.595%, bid-to-cover: 3.54x
- 05:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €6.0B vs. €6.0B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.421% v -0.454% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.42x v 1.39x prior
Looking ahead
- (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in 0% Apr 2026 BOBL
- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell €1.0-1.25B in 2027 and 2030 bonds
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q4 Preliminary GDP Annualized (2nd reading): 6.1%e v 6.3% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Feb Consumer Confidence: No est v 94 prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Final CPI M/M: No est v -0.5% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prelim
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.5% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prelim – 06:00 (BR) Brazil Mar IGP-M Inflation (1st Preview): 1.8%e v 1.9% prior
- 06:00 (RU) Russia to sell 2928 and 2035 OFZ Bonds
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Economists Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 5th: No est v +0.5% prior
- 07:00 (IS) Iceland Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 12.8% prior
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank comments on CPI data:
- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Question time in House
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) Feb Minutes
- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Feb CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb CPI (ex-food/energy) M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb CPI Index NSA: 263.125e v 261.582 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 270.394e v 270.025 prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb Real Avg Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 6.1% prior; Real Avg Hourly Earning Y/Y: No est v 4.0% prior
- 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.48B in APF Gilt purchase operation
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year Notes
- 14:00 (US) Feb Monthly Budget Statement: -$305.0B.0e v -$162.8B prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Capacity Utilization: No est v 58.4% prior
- (MX) Mexico Feb ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v -8.2% prior
- (MX) Mexico Feb Nominal Wages: No est v 3.8% prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Feb Food Prices M/M: No est v 1.3% prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Feb PPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.7%e v -1.6% prior
- 19:00 (AU) Australia Mar Consumer Inflation Expectation: No est v 3.7% prior
- 19:01 (UK) Feb RICS House Price Balance: 45%e v 50% prior
- 23:00 (JP) Japan Feb Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies: No est v 4.82 prior
- 22:30 (TH) Thailand Feb Consumer Confidence: No est v 47.8 prior; Economic Confidence: No est v 41.6 prior
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 20-Year JGB Bonds
