Notes/Observations
- Germany Jan exports post a surprise rise
- Global yields continued to correct from recent highs; aiding risk appetite
Asia:
- Japan Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 2.8% v 3.0%e; GDP Annualized Q/Q: 11.7% v 12.6%e
- Japan PM Suga has nominated Junko Nakagawa for the BOJ Board, to replace Takako Masai whose term is due to end on June 29th
- China State funds seen buying equities to help stabilize markets –
Coronavirus:
- Total global cases 117.1M (+0.3% d/d); total deaths: 2.60M (+0.3% d/d)
Europe:
- France Central Bank stated that the economy to show slightly positive growth in Q1. (Would imply 4% annual growth for 2021 if Q1 rate remained unchanged)
Americas:
- House Speaker Pelosi: To take up Senate’s US$1.9T COVID-19 Bill by Wednesday (Mar 10th)
- House Democrats demand IRS extend tax filing deadline to July 15th
Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum
Equities
- Indices [Stoxx600 +0.49% at 419.30, FTSE +0.47% at 6,750.64, DAX +0.41% at 14,439.70, CAC-40 +0.20% at 5,914.57, IBEX-35 +0.44% at 8,481.00, FTSE MIB +0.38% at 23,772.50, SMI -0.14% at 10,815.08, S&P 500 Futures +1.07%]
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open modestly lower but later turned around to trade generally higher; sectors biased to the upside include energy and utilities; sectors underperforming lead by materials and industrials; Shell’s Austria unit sells Egypt portfolio to Cairn; Grifols to take remaining stake in GigaGen earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Chevron, Walt Disney and Sonos
Equities
- Consumer discretionary: Deutsche Post DHL [DPW.DE] +2% (earnings), Domino’s Pizza UK & IRL [DOM.UK[ +9% (earnings; buyback)
- Energy: Cairn Energy [CNE.UK] -5% (earnings; deals)
- Healthcare: Molecular Partners [MOLN.CH] +6% (trial results)
- Industrials: Continental [CON.DE] -6% (prelim earnings; outlook)
- Technology: Ultra Electronics [ULE.UK] +5% (earnings)
Speakers
- Bank of France Gov Villeroy stated that he saw 2021 GDP growth at least 5.0% and that the recession was behind them.
- German Chancellor Merkel stated that thepandemic to have a long-term effect on public budgets
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov stated that might lower its 2021 borrowing plan
- Libya National Oil Corporation (NOC) chief Sanalla: Targets increasing oil production to 1.4M bpd by the end of 2021
Currencies/Fixed Income
- USD trimmed some of its recent gains as a multi-day surge in yields abated for the time being. Recent optimism on a global recovery must suggest the pause in yield rise might only be temporary.
- EUR/USD was re-approaching the 1.19 handle with focus turning to ECB’s rate decision on Thursday. The weekly QE bond buying stats from the central bank again disappointed. Recent data suggested ECB was paring back bond buying in the face of rising yields. Dealers noted of no strong signal that the ECB was defending a certain level in the market (**Note: ECB spokesperson: weekly net purchases affected by seasonality and large redemption. The 1.20 area remains key resistance.
- GBP/USD edging back to 1.39 after a multi-day correction. Current range suggests a 1.36 to 1.42 range
- USD/JPY tested above 109 during Asia but retraced as the greenback was humbled by the correction in yields. US 10-year yield was lower by over 5bps to test below 1.54 during the electronic session.
Economic data
- (FR) France Q4 Final Private Sector Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Total Payrolls: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (DE) Germany Jan Current Account Balance: €16.9B v €21.8Be; Trade Balance: €14.3B v €14.5Be; Exports M/M: +1.4% v -1.8%e; Imports M/M: -4.7% v -1.9%e
- (RO) Romania Q4 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Q/Q: 4.8% v 5.3%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.5%e
- (NO) Norway Jan Overall GDP M/M: -0.3% v +1.1% prior; GDP Mainland M/M: -0.2% v -0.6%e
- (TW) Taiwan Feb CPI Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.2%e; WPI Y/Y: -0.4% v -1.0%e
- (TW) Taiwan Feb Trade Balance: $4.5B v $4.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 9.7% v 16.0%e; Imports Y/Y: 5.7% v 14.3%e
- (ES) Spain Q4 INE House Price Index Q/Q: -0.8% v +1.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.7% prior
- (CZ) Czech Jan National Trade Balance (CZK): 24.6B v 32.3Be
- (HU) Hungary Feb CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.0%e
- (SE) Sweden Jan Private Sector Production M/M: +0.1% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -2.9% v -2.2% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan Industrial Orders M/M: 0.6% v 3.4% prior; Y/Y: 8.5% v 9.9% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan Industry Production Value Y/Y: 1.1% v 7.2% prior; Service Production Value Y/Y: -3.5% v -4.1% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan Household Consumption M/M: +1.8% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -3.8% v -6.5% prior
- (CZ) Czech Feb International Reserves: $165.8B v $164.4B prior
- (IT) Italy Jan Industrial Production M/M: 1.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -4.1%e; Industrial Production NSA (unadj) Y/Y: -8.1% v +1.5% prior
- (NO) Norway Feb Region Survey: Output Past 3-months: -0.16 v +0.13 prior; Output Next 6-month: 0.92 v 0.1 prior
- (ZA) South Africa Q4 GDP Annualized Q/Q: 6.3% v 5.6%e; Y/Y: -4.1% v -4.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.7% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -4.9% v -5.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Govt Expenditures Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.6%e; Household Consumption Q/Q: -3.0% v -3.0%e; Gross Fixed Capital Q/Q: 1.6% v 0.7%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Final Employment Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.0% prior
Fixed income Issuance
- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR4.5T vs. IDR12.0T target in Islamic bonds (Sukuk) auction
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold €2.33B vs. €1.5-2.5B indicated range in 0% Jan 2027 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: -0.484% v -0.001% prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR6.6B vs. ZAR6.6B indicated in 2031, 2035 and 2040 bonds
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €1.93B vs. €1.5-2.5B indicated range in 3-month and 9-month bills (Feb 16th 2021)
- (UK) DMO sold £2.25B in 1.25% Oct 2041 Gilts; Avg Yield: 1.223% v 0.987% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.52x v 2.51x prior; Tail: 0.1bps v 0.1bps prior
Looking Ahead
- (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell €2.6-3.0B in 3-month and 12-month bills
- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO) (prior €502M with 13 bids recd)
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Industrial Production M/M: No est v -24.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 28.8% prior
- 06:00 (US) Feb NFIB Small Business Optimism: 96.5e v 95 prior
- 06:00 (FI) Finland to sell €2.0B in 6-month and 9-month Bills
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell €B in 12-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Feb CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 3.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jan IBGE Services Sector Volume Y/Y: -4.9%e v -3.3% prior
- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed)
- 08:30 (UR) Ukraine Feb CPI M/M: 0.7%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 7.2%e v 6.1% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Year Notes
- (BR) Brazil Jan Total Formal Job Creation: +188.7Ke v -67.9K prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Feb Total Card Spending M/M: No est v -1.2% prior; Retail Card Spending M/M: -1.0%e v -0.4% prior
- 17:00 (AU) RBA Gov Lowe in Sydney
- 18:30 (AU) Australia Mar Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 109.1 prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Feb CPI Y/Y: -0.3%e v -0.3% prior; PPI Y/Y: 1.5%e v 0.3% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China to sell 2-year and 5-year Upsize Bonds
- 22:00 (TH) Thailand to sell THB20B in 4-year Bond
