Economic expectations for the next six months rose from 91.5 in January to 94.2 in February, beating economists’ forecasts. The current conditions index rose to 90.6 from 89.2 a month earlier. According to the Institute, Germany’s economy is “divided” as not all sectors show sustainable growth. Manufacturing activity is strong while retail is on a weak side.
The German economy hardly escaped a downturn in the fourth quarter, but with shops and restaurants still closed, economists are expecting a recession in the first quarter of this year. The German government indicates that a larger slowdown in the spread of the coronavirus will need to be seen before considering easing restrictions. But as long as the manufacturing sector is a key source of economic resilience, the downturn in the first quarter should not be too big.
Meanwhile, investors’ attention is gradually shifting to the oil market. Brent has set a new record, slightly above $65.50. WTI nearly hit $63 a barrel, while investment banks and traders are forecasting further price increases. Morgan Stanley and Socar Trading SA see the opportunity to hit the $80 mark this year.
Oil rose sharply this year after Saudi Arabia pledged to unilaterally cut production by 1 million barrels per day in February and March. At the same time, Goldman Sachs Group predicts that growth will accelerate as global demand exceeds supply. However, next week, a new OPEC + meeting is expected, where new disagreements can be expected among the major oil-producing countries. The outcome of the meeting may change the direction of oil quotes.
Main market quotes:
- S&P 500 (F) 3,878.62 +5.12 (+0.13%)
- Dow Jones 31,521.69 +27.37 (+0.09%)
- DAX 13,870.10 -79.94 (-0.57%)
- FTSE 100 6,626.27 +14.03 (+0.21%)
- USD Index 90.095 +0.096 (+0.11%)
Important events:
- The Average Earnings Including Bonuses in the UK (Dec) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Changes in the UK Jobless Claims (Jan) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- The Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (Jan) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- The US CB Consumer Confidence Index (Feb) at 09:00 (GMT+2).
