Market movers today
Covid-19 developments, news about a new round of US stimulus and growing fears about a new Sino-American cold war will likely continue to set the tone in markets this week. However, we will also get a range of interesting economic releases with the Fed meeting on Wednesday and Q2 GDP figures released in the US (Thursday) and a range of European countries (Friday) that will reveal the depth of the economic fallout.
Republicans are expected to unveil their proposals for a fresh round of stimulus today, rumoured to include direct cash payments of USD1200 per person and reduced federal unemployment benefits.
The German Ifo index has staged a swift rebound from the trough in April, but remained well below pre-corona crisis levels in June. Today’s figures will complement last week’s upbeat PMI message (see more below) and confirm whether the German recovery has gathered speed in July.
Following a sharp increase in May, we expect today’s retail sales figures out of Denmark to show a decline for June.
Selected market news
In a change of fortunes, Europe’s economy seems on course for a swifter recovery from the corona crisis than the US. Euro area PMIs finally crossed the Rubicon into expansion territory in July, driven especially by a surge in services sector sentiment, where activity was hit the hardest. However, not only domestic demand strengthened at the start of Q3 as consumers resumed their former spending patterns, but also a pick-up in foreign sales was apparent (particularly from China). All this should help the euro area rebound shift into a higher gear in H2, but one area of concern remains the labour market, with firms in both services and especially manufacturing remaining in retrenchment mode. Signs of rebuilding demand should hopefully induce European businesses to restart hiring in the coming months, but July’s lacklustre reading of consumer confidence was a reminder that an ongoing strong recovery in private consumption is not a given. New localized corona outbreaks in tourism hotpots, such as lately in the Catalonia region (which induced the UK and Norway to re-impose its quarantine orders for travellers from Spain), compound this risk. A more sombre picture on the state of the global economy emerged from across the Atlantic. High frequency data already pointed to a stalling of the US recovery in recent weeks (see US Macro Monitor). July’s US PMIs confirmed this picture with the services PMI showing further improvement but remaining in contraction territory in contrast to its European counterpart.
Markets took their cue from the more negative US numbers and a general risk-off mood reigned on Friday, with Gold rising above USD 1900 for the first time since 2011. Growing concerns over Sino-American tensions after Beijing ordered the US to shut a consulate in a tit-for-tat retaliation also weighed on investors’ mood and USD/JPY broke below the important technical support level of 106 as broad dollar weakness persisted. This morning the mood seems a bit more upbeat with S&P 500 futures pointing to a higher opening.
