The New Zealand dollar rose after the country released its terms of trade data for the first quarter. The data showed that the export prices declined by 0.2% in Q1, which was better than the expected decline of 1%. Export volumes rose by 1.8%, which was better than the previous increase of 1.7% and the consensus estimates of -0.1%. In the same quarter, import prices rose by 0.5%, which was better than the estimated decline of -0.9%. In total, the terms of trade index declined by 0.7% in the quarter. Meanwhile, building consents declined by 6.5% in April, which was a significant improvement from the March decline of 21.7%.
The Australian dollar declined slightly after the RBA delivered its interest rate decision. The bank left the main interest rate at 0.25% and pledged to continue supporting the economy. Earlier on, the statistics office released mixed economic data for the first quarter. The current account, which measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods and services rose to $8.4 billion, which was the highest it has been in years. The net export contribution rose by 0.5% from the previous 0.1%. On the negative side, Australian companies’ pre-tax profits declined by 16.2% in the quarter because of the coronavirus pandemic.
We will continue to watch the ongoing protests in the United States over the murder of George Floyd. In an overnight statement, the president threatened to send armed military officials in key US cities to end the unrest. We will also receive retail sales and manufacturing PMI data from Switzerland. In the United Kingdom, we will get the April mortgage lending and approvals. Later, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release the crude oil inventories data.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair was little moved in overnight trading. The pair is trading at 1.1124, which is a few pips below yesterday’s high of 1.1154. On the four-hour chart, this price is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and below the 100-day and 50-day exponential moving average. The signal line of the MACD is above the neutral line. Therefore, while the pair may continue rising today, there is a possibility that it will make a pullback and retest the 50% retracement at 1.1065.
XBR/USD
The price of crude oil rose to an intraday high of 38.50 as the market waited for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. The price is close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and is above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving average. The pair will likely continue rising as bulls attempt to test the important resistance at $40.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair declined slightly after the RBA delivered its interest rate decision. The pair is trading at 0.6781, which is a few pips below the high of 0.6813. On the daily chart, this price is above the short and medium-term moving averages and is also above the Ichimoku cloud. The RSI has moved to the overbought level while the Chaikin oscillator has continued to rise. The pair will likely continue rising as bulls attempt to test the important resistance at 0.7000.
