Awaiting President’s Trump Press Conference On China

Notes/Observations

• Risk appetite hesitant ahead of President Trump’s planned press conference on China; concerns of escalating tensions could have an adverse economic impact.
• Plethora of disappointing EU inflation and GDP data did little to phase any optismism over the EU’s recent proposal of the Recovery Fund

Asia:

• China Embassy: Reiterates China govt stance that will take counter measures in regards to meddling in its internal affairs (refers to both HK and Taiwan). Reiterated that outside attempts by foreign forces to interfere will fail
• Japan Apr Jobless Rate registered its highest level since Dec 2017 (2.6% v 2.7%e)
• Japan Apr Retail Sales data registered its largest annual decline since March 1998 (MoM: -9.6% v -6.9%e, YoY: -13.7% v -11.2%e)
• Japan Apr Industrial Production M/M: -9.1% v -5.7%e; Y/Y: -14.4% -10.6%e)

Coronavirus:

• Total global cases 5,810,331 (+2.1% d/d); total deaths: 360.3K2 (+1.3% d/d)

Europe:

• EU Brexit Negotiator Barnier: Reiterates EU stance that will be extremely difficult though possible to reach a deal with UK by end of year

Americas:

• President Trump: will give news conference about China on Friday, May 29th; topic said to be related to response to Hong Kong actions
• President Trump signed Executive Order aimed at limiting the legal protections that shield social media platforms from liability for content posted on their platforms

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -1.19% at 351.50, FTSE -0.99% at 6,157.06, DAX -1.53% at , CAC-40 -1.22% at 4,713.43, IBEX-35 -1.18% at 7,139.00, FTSE MIB -0.64% at 18,234.50, SMI -0.39% at 9,887.51, S&P 500 Futures -0.46%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open broadly lower and continued that direction as the session wore on; consumer discretionary sector leads to the downside; better performing sectors include technology and materials; Renault announces transformation plan, including cuts to 14.6k jobs; twitter blocks overnight tweet from President Trump on Minneapolis riots; focus on raft of economic data coming out during the session; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Tata Motors and Big Lots

Equities

• Consumer discretionary:Tui [TUI.UK] -8% (UK unit cancels all holidays until June 30), Hugo Boss [BPOSS.DE] -6% (analyst downgrade)
• Industrials: SIG [SHI.UK] +3% (earnings; new CFO; capital raise), Renault [RNO.FR] -5% (cost savings plan)

Speakers

• ECB’s Visco (Italy) reiterated Council stance that prepared to use all tools available to ensure all sector of economy benefits from accommodative financing conditions. Needed deep change in economy to exit crisis. EU Commission Recovery Fund proposalwais an opportunity for common response to match the gravity of the situation . Italian public debt is sustainable; uncertainty was keeping bond yields high could be removed only through long term economic policies
• India Finance Ministry official stated that was keeping options open for further stimulus measures. Needed to spur demand across sectors in the post lockdown period
• Thailand Central Bank’s Don stated that needed to monitor the jump in unemployment
• China Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated Chinese govt stance that its viewed Hong Kong as an internal matter

Currencies/Fixed Income

• Risk appetite hesitant ahead of President Trump’s planned press conference on China. Dealers note of concerns of escalating tensions could have an adverse economic impact.
• Dealers noted that tensions between the US and China would determine sentiment towards risk assets. For the time being sSafe-haven flows mainly benefited the JPY currency (Yen) in the price action.
• EUR/USD was higher by 0.3% to remain above the 1.11 handle for 2-month highs. The EU Commission’s proposed coronavirus recovery plan seemed to take precedent over concerns about US-China tensions.

Economic Data

• (NL) Netherlands Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.8% prior
• (FI) Finland Q1 GDP Q/Q: -0.9% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v +0.5%
• (DE) Germany Apr Retail Sales M/M: -5.3% v -12.0%e; Y/Y: -6.5% v -14.0%e
• (DE) Germany Apr Import Price Index M/M: -1.8% v -1.4%e; Y/Y: -7.4% v -7.2%e
• (NO) Norway Apr Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.7% prior
• (FI) Finland Mar final Trade Balance: -€0.3B v -€0.3B prelim
• (DK) Denmark Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -2.1% v +0.4 prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v +2.2% prior
• (DK) Denmark Apr Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 5.1% v 3.6% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.4% v 4.1% prior
• (ZA) South Africa Apr M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.5% v 7.6%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 7.4% v 7.9%e
• (FR) France Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -5.3% v -5.8%e; Y/Y: -5.0% v -5.4%e
• (FR) France May Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e
• (FR) France May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e
• (FR) France Apr PPI M/M: -2.9% v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: -4.7% v -2.7% prior
• (FR) France Apr Consumer Spending M/M: -20.2%% v -14.7%e; Y/Y: -34.1% v -32.2%e
• (CH) Swiss May KOF Leading Indicator: 53.2 v 70.0e
• (AT) Austria Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -2.6% v -2.5% prelim; Y/Y: -2.9% v -2.7% prelim
• (AT) Austria Apr PPI M/M: -0.8% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -2.4% v -1.5% prior
• (HU) Hungary Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e
• (TR) Turkey Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.9%e
• (TR) Turkey Apr Trade Balance: -$4.6B v -$4.0Be
• (SE) Sweden Q1 GDP Q/Q: +0.1% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e
• (SE) Sweden Apr Trade Balance (SEK): -2.9B v 5.2B prior
• (SE) Sweden Apr Household Lending Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2% prior
• (SE) Sweden Mar Non-Manual Workers’ Wages Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.1% prior
• (TH) Thailand Apr Current Account Balance: -$0.7B v -$0.8Be; Overall Balance of payments (BOP): -$0.7B v -$0.8B prior; Trade Account Balance: $2.2B v $2.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: -3.3% v -2.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: -17.0% v 4.4% prior
• (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 145.0K v 175.8K tons prior
• (EU) Euro Zone Apr M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.3% v 8.2%e
• (IT) Italy Q1 Final GDP WDA Q/Q: -5.3% v -4.7%e; Y/Y: -5.4% v -4.8%e
• (NO) Norway May Unemployment Rate: 6.4% v 6.8%e
• (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Jun Daily FX Purchases (NOK): -2.3B v -2.1B prior
• (CZ) Czech Apr M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.3% v 9.9% prior
• (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 22nd (RUB): 12.39T v 12.34T prior
• (PL) Poland Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.5% prelim; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9% prelim
• (PL) Poland May Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.0%e
• (ES) Spain Mar Current Account Balance: -€1.1B v +€1.3B prior
• (PT) Portugal May Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.4% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.2% prior
• (PT) Portugal May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.1% prior
• (EU) Euro Zone May CPI Estimate Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.1%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e; CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e
• (BE) Belgium Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -3.6% v -3.9% prelim; Y/Y: -2.5% v -2.8% prelim
• (GR) Greece Mar Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -3.1% v +2.5% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.5% v +4.7% prior
• (IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e
• (IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2%e
• (IS) Iceland Q1 GDP Q/Q: -7.0% v 4.8% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v +4.7% prior
• (IS) Iceland Q1 Current Account Balance (ISK): 11.4B v 50.9B prior
• (IS) Iceland Apr Final Trade Balance (ISK): -0.4B v -0.8B prelim
• (CY) Cyprus Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -1.3% v -1.3% prelim; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9% prelim

Fixed Income Issuance

• (IN) India sold total INR360B vs. INR300B indicated in 2024, 2034 and 2050 bonds
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €6.5B vs. €5.5-6.5B indicated range in 5-year and 10-year BTP bonds
• Sold €2.5B vs. €2.5B indicated range in 1.85% July 2025 BTP bonds; Avg Yield: 0.91% v 1.36% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.79x prior
• Sold €4.0B vs. €4.0B indicated range in 0.95% Aug 2030 BTP; Avg Yield: 1.42% v 1.78% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.27x v 1.31x prior
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €1.0B vs. €0.75-1.0B indicated range in Dec 2023 CCTeu (Floating rate Notes); Avg Yield: 0.53%; Bid-to-cover: 1.67x

Looking Ahead

• 05:30 (SL) Sri Lanka May CPI Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR1.4B in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050 Bonds
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v -12.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -11.1% prior
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -3.9%e v -3.9% prelim; Y/Y: No est v -2.4% prelim
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Retail Sales M/M: No est v -11.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -5.6% prior
• 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £3.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £1.0B and £2.0B respectively)
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing – 07:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Gold Production: No est v 6.0K kilograms prior; Silver Production: No est v 289.8K kilograms prior; Copper Production: No est v 41.4K tons – 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e May 22nd: No est v $B prior
• 08:00 (IN) India Q1 GDP Y/Y: 1.6%e v 4.7% prior; GVA Y/Y: 1.8%e v 4.5% prior
• 08:00 (IN) India 2020 GDP Annual Estimate Y/Y: 4.3%e v 5.0% prior
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.1% prior
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil Q1 GDP Q/Q: -1.5%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.3%e v +1.7% prior; GDP 4-quarters Accumulated: 0.9%e v 1.1% prior
• 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Apr Trade Balance (ZAR): 13.0Be v 24.2B prior
• 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Apr Monthly Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v -51.2B prior
• 08:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed)
• 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming issuance
• 08:30 (US) Apr Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$65.0Be v -$64.4B prior (revised from -$62.2B)
• 08:30 (US) Apr Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: -0.7%e v -0.8% prior; Retail Inventories M/M: -0.8%e v +0.9% prior
• 08:30 (US) Apr Personal Income: -6.0%e v -2.0% prior; Personal Spending: -12.8%e v -7.5% prior; Real Personal Spending (PCE): -12.9%e v -7.3% prior
• 08:30 (US) Apr PCE Deflator M/M: -0.6%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 1.3% prior
• 08:30 (US) Apr PCE Core Deflator M/M: -0.3%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.7% prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar GDP M/M: -8.9%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -3.4%e v +2.1% prior; Q1 Quarterly GDP Annualized: -10.0%e v +0.3% prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Industrial Product Price M/M: -2.0%e v -0.9% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: No est v -15.6% prior
• 08:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Primary Budget Balance (BRL): -109.6Be v -23.7B prior; Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -112.5Be v -79.7B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: No est v 51.7% prior
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
• 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Unemployment Rate: 9.1%e v 8.2% prior
• 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.5%e v +0.8% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -5.0%e v +0.6% prior; Total Copper Production: No est v 498.1K tons prior
• 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: -20.0%e v -14.9% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v -9.0% prior
• 09:45 (US) May Chicago Purchasing Managers Index: 40.0e v 35.4 prior
• 10:00 (US May Final University of Michigan Confidence: 74.0e v 73.7 prelim
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 5.011T prior
• 11:00 (CO) Colombia Apr National Unemployment Rate: No est v 12.6% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 15.0%e v 13.4% prior
• 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Moody’s on Belgium and Switzerland Sovereign Debt to be rated by Moody’s; S&P on Ireland Sovereign Debt – 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count
• 15:00 (US) Apr Agricultural Prices Paid: No est v -0.7% prior; Prices Received: No est v 0.0% prior
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Wages M/M: No est v 3.9% prior
• (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Overnight Lending rate by 50bps to 2.75%