HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisAustralian Merchandise Trade Balance: Exports Still Elevated - Despite Partial Pull-Back in...

Australian Merchandise Trade Balance: Exports Still Elevated – Despite Partial Pull-Back in April

Exports still elevated – despite partial pull-back in April

For Preliminary merchandise trade data (goods but not services) for April was released.

Recall that this data is on a customs basis and is not seasonally adjusted. Our interpretation, preliminary exports provide a broad guide to the actual number (after seasonal adjustment), imports not so much due to gaps in coverage and variability in the seasonal factor.

For April:

  • Goods exports, -12.2% after +29.6%, -$4.4bn
  • Goods imports, -5.4% after a +13.3%, -$1.3bn

The story behind the numbers.

A double digit fall in goods exports was as we anticipated. Gold was a key driver, down $1.7bn after a $2.5bn spike. Weaker commodity prices were also a factor.

Recall that in March, exports rebounded from disruption, iron ore from Cyclone Damien and gold from China’s lock-down from late January and through February.

Imports were also impacted in April by lower commodity prices, with fuels down $0.7bn.

Implications

Goods exports, adjusted, down in the order of -7.7%. By way of context, that has goods exports 0.5% above the level at the end of 2019 – a relatively resilient performance.

Goods imports – a relatively high degree of uncertainty – perhaps down by 2.5%. That has imports down by 9% from the end of 2019 – a sizeable fall, on weaker domestic demand.

On those figures, goods trade balance remains sizeable in April, down from the spike to a record high of $10.1bn in March to $8.0bn.

Westpac Banking Corporation
Westpac Banking Corporationhttps://www.westpac.com.au/
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given above are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.

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