Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.90%, Shanghai Composite gained 0.55%, Hang Rose rose 0.50%, ASX 200 fell 0.70%
- Commodities: WTI Oil at $45.85 (+0.20%), Brent Oil at $48.20 (+0.25%), Gold at $1254 (-0.05%), Silver at $16.45 (-0.10%)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.24, UK 10 year yield at 1.18, German 10 year yield at 0.51
News & Data:
- Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI July Flash 52.2 (prev 52.4)
- PBoC Sets Yuan Mid-Point At 6.7410 / USD (Prev 6.7415)
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR long 91K vs 84K long last week. Longs increased by 7K
- GBP short 16K vs 24K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K.
- JPY short 127K vs 112K short last week. Shorts increased by 15K
- CHF short 4K vs 0K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
- CAD long 8K vs 9K short. CAD position shifts by 17K new longs. Position is now long.
- AUD long 51k vs 37k last week. Longs increased by 14K.
- NZD long 36K vs 32K long last week. Longs increased by 4K
Markets Update:
The new trading week began with a consolidation in the major currency pairs. EURUSD traded around 1.1670 in the Asian session. While the outlook remains positive, the Euro is overbought in the short-term and a retracement seems likely before the rally continues.
The Aussie Dollar consolidated around 0.7920. Resistance at 0.80 is tough, but a rise in commodity prices and risk-on sentiment in the market should keep the currency supported.
Meanwhile, the outlook for the US Dollar is negative. The Fed is unlikely to reveal much new information on Wednesday, and USD longs might see themselves forced to liquidate their positions further.
Upcoming Events:
- 08:00 BST – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:00 BST – French Services PMI
- 08:30 BST – German Manufacturing PMI
- 08:30 BST – German Services PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Services PMI
- 14:45 BST – US Services PMI
- 15:00 BST – US Existing Home Sales
The Week Ahead:
- Tuesday: German IFO Business Climate, New Zealand Trade Balance
- Wednesday: Fed Rate Decision, Australian CPI, RBA Governor Lowe speaks, UK GDP, US New Home Sales
- Thursday: US Durable Goods Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday: Japan CPI, Japan Retail Sales, French CPI, German CPI, US GDP
