Market Movers Today
The ECB’s Survey of Professional forecasters is due for release today where focus will be on the longer-term inflation expectations. The survey-based inflation expectations have been fairly stable at 1.8% but the distribution has shifted to more forecasters expecting inflation to stay below 2% in five years. Some dovish ECB members have argued the distribution of inflation expectations still needs to shift but recently the ECB has been more focused on the stronger economic recovery. See ECB Review, 20 July 2017.
As the Bank of Canada has embarked on a tightening cycle recently with the rates market pricing in another hike by year-end, financial markets will take stock of the Canadian CPI and retail sales data due for release today, to see whether data supports tighter monetary policy in Canada.
The oil market will focus on the release of the weekly US oil rig count and looks for more signs of negative supply response among US producers to low oil prices. Furthermore, the oil market will watch out for headlines from OPEC as the cartel is set to review compliance to current output cuts over the weekend in addition to starting talks with Libya and Nigeria over whether to include the two nations in the deal.
Finally, US politics has gained attention this week and the market will look to see if further progress is made in the attempt to repeal Obamacare and also for news on the ongoing investigation of President Trump.
Selected Market News
The ECB kept all policy measures unchanged and maintained its readiness to increase the size and/or duration of QE purchases. According to President Mario Draghi, the Governing Council was unanimous in setting no precise date on when to discuss changes to the QE programme but argued that, ‘our discussion should take place in the autumn ‘. Additionally, Draghi said the ECB has not tasked its staff with looking at QE options beyond December 2017. The above suggests the ECB is not ready to make an announcement at the September meeting on how QE purchases will continue in 2017. We maintain our view that the ECB will continue its QE purchases but at a reduced pace of EUR40bn per month in H1 18, but now believe this will be announced at the October meeting (previously September).
EUR/USD rose on the back of the ECB meeting as Draghi did not provide the market with a reason to sell the single currency. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1630, so is not only hitting the 1.16 level, on news about the ongoing investigation on President Trump, which will now also include his business transactions.
The South African central bank cut its key policy rate to 6.75% from 7.00% yesterday. This was a surprise cut as consensus had expected the central bank to keep the rate unchanged. USD/ZAR rallied above the 13.00 level on the decision.
