- US jobless claims jumped to 281,000 last week
- Largest weekly increase since 2012
- Layoffs likely escalated this week
A sharp rise in new unemployment claims last week is just the tip of the iceberg. Today’s data covers the week ending March 14, so won’t have fully captured this week’s escalation in both mandatory and discretionary business closures that will have resulted in significant layoffs. Expect a much larger increase in next Thursday’s initial claims report. This series has spiked to at least 500,000 in past recessions, and we could get there in relatively short order given the abrupt slowdown in some sectors of the economy.
Today’s data coincides with the survey week for monthly payroll and household employment reports. So while those reports are likely to show some impact of coronavirus containment measures, we might have to wait for April’s data (released early-May) to see the true scale of this shock.
