Based on a conversation with professor in virology, Allan Randrup Thomsen, Copenhagen University
On Thursday, 27 February, Danske Bank’s international macro and equity research teams hosted a phone conference with professor in virology Allan Randrup Thomsen from the University of Copenhagen on the spread of the coronavirus and its impact on the global economy and financial markets. Below is our summary of Prof. Thomsen’s answers to our questions on the virus. For a complete access to his answers, please listen to the audio playback of the conference call, which is available for the next 14 days by calling +4582333190 and enter pin code 301312081#.
1. Q: What is the coronavirus (COVID-19) and how does it differ from other viruses that we are hit by every year? Does it make sense to compare it to previous outbreaks of other viruses, like SARS and MERS etc.?
A: The coronavirus can best be compared to SARS. However, the coronavirus is somewhat weaker than the SARS since it has a lower fatality rate, but at the same time it as also more infectious. The weakness of the virus is visible since in around 80% of cases the symptoms are mild and do not require any medical care. It is mostly people over the age of 60 that are at risk since they typically have other diseases that make them vulnerable. If you are younger than 60 you should not worry too much about your personal well-being.
2. Q: How easy is it to infect other people with the coronavirus compared to other viruses?
A: Judging by the latest numbers, one person will infect between 2 or 3 other people with the disease. Thus, it is much like a normal flu, which typically infects 1.5 other people. The symptoms from the coronavirus are milder compared to SARS, which is a good thing. However, this is also a bad thing, since the virus is more concealed and thus it takes longer before infected people go to the doctor, which makes the spreading more severe.
3. Q: How easy it is to test for the virus and how long does it take to get the results?
A: First of all, you would look out for whether a person has the known symptoms. Then you would conduct a test where you extract some material from a person’s respiratory tract – as low in the tract as possible. After the test is conducted, it will most likely take four hours before you have the results from the PCR test in the laboratory. However, during the incubation period these tests are unreliable and the extracted material might not be representative for the person. Hence, you need to conduct several tests to insure that the test is not negative due to the person being in the incubation period. Speaking about tests, the screening that is being carried out at airports is unreliable and you should preferably quarantine every person who travels home from a risk area
4. Q: How long is the incubation period? How does this compare to other viruses?
A: Consensus from scientists seems to be that the incubation period is between 2 and 12.5 days, which is very much like normal influenza. Hence, a quarantine period of two weeks is suitable before declaring a person uninfected.
5. Q: How fast can a vaccine be developed and would that be able to stop the contagion now? Will the virus die since we now are approaching warmer weather in the spring?
A: A vaccine would be too late to cure the current stage. You can have prototypes of a vaccine ready in the laboratories within three to four months, but then you need to start all the tests and evaluate the effects and side effects. In sum, it will probably take one year from now to have the drug ready for circulation. After that you need to set up the actual production of the drug, which requires high quality factories to adapt the production method, which again takes time. However, if there is sufficient financial assistance, factories might produce the drugs in big amounts before the final tests are concluded. If a drug is made, the first people to get it would be healthcare personnel and people at the greatest risk (elderly people). Higher temperature definitely reduces the spread of respiratory diseases.
6. Q: Is there a risk that virus becomes a widespread European pandemic, including the Nordic countries? Why is it spreading so rapidly in Italy?
A: Most of the Nordic and Western European countries will probably be able to cluster the infected people so that it will not be a big epidemic, resulting in only a small fraction of the people being infected. However, a threat to all citizens and societies are the precautionary measures that the authorities might need to introduce in order to stop the spreading (e.g. banning of free movement).
A: Italy may just have been unlucky by being the first country in Europe to get it and thus people have walked around with mild symptoms, not knowing they carried the virus, and then you suddenly get a huge number of new cases when people start going to the doctor.
7. Q: How close is the WHO to calling this a global pandemic?
A: I do not have any inside information. I think they are close, but hesitate due to the consequences from the extensive precautionary measures that will need to be taken by countries if the WHO declares it. Furthermore, since there is only one case in the United States and South America, it is so far not a ‘global’ pandemic.
8. Q: If you get the virus and survive it, are you then immunised?
A: Based on the experience from SARS, you will probably be protected from getting the virus again within the first couple of years after you have been infected.
9. Q: What is the risk that the coronavirus mutates?
A: The virus has a more stable genome than DNA viruses and since the virus is closely clustered there will not be much mutation. If it mutates in the long run, it will change and become more like a normal flu – i.e. high infection but low mortality.
10. Q: What are the possibilities for reducing mortality rates and will there be capacity issues at Danish hospitals?
A: Products are being tested but I do not expect any drug within the next six months. Drugs that reduce mortality are most effective if you start taking the drug right after you have been infected, but often the patient does not go to the hospital before the infection has peaked. Thus, the most important thing for reducing mortality is the health system.
A: We are very well equipped for smaller epidemics in Denmark, but not for a big one. The strategy from the authorities is to find every case and prevent a larger breakout, so you then smooth out the patients at the hospitals over a longer period and thus avoid bottlenecks from forming.
