- 35,000 jobs added in January, all full-time
- Unemployment rate dipped to 5.5%
- Goods sector employment rebounded after Q4/19 swoon
The blistering pace of hiring seen in Canada between late-2018 and mid-2019 has faded, but today’s data suggest the labour market is far from grinding to a halt. Job gains over the last six months averaged a healthy 20,000 and nearly all of that was full-time work. GDP growth toward the end of last year was downright ugly, though transitory factors were at play and the employment figures suggest underlying trends are better than the headline numbers indicate. A low unemployment rate—now just 0.1 percentage point above its cycle low—also goes against the BoC’s view that the economy is no longer close to full capacity, though a drop in the participation rate might be evidence of some spare workers. Today’s data reduce the urgency for the BoC to lower rates (market pricing for a cut pushed back from September to October) though we continue to think the door is open to a rate cut if the economy’s rebound early this year proves underwhelming.
