Market movers ahead
- Look out for the expected finalisation and signing of the US-China phase-one deal in early January.
- In the US in coming weeks, focus is set to be on the ISM manufacturing index, the December jobs report, FOMC minutes and the impeachment process. We believe employment growth remains solid – at least soft survey indicators suggest so.
- In the euro area, focus is on preliminary HICP inflation figures and German industrial production for November. Despite improvement in soft indicators, German industrial production in October was lacklustre.
- In the UK, the monthly GDP estimate for November should shed light on whether the economy continues to move sideways.
- In China, we expect Caixin PMI manufacturing to come down from its very high levels, while the NBS PMI manufacturing should be broadly unchanged.
Weekly wrap-up
- After some conflicting reports, both China and the US officially confirmed the landing of a phase-one trade deal.
- The agreement spurred a significant rally in global equity markets.
- Global central bank meetings reaffirmed a wait-and-see approach.
- No-deal Brexit risk flared up this week, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson refuses to extend the transition period.
We wish all our readers a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. The first edition of Weekly Focus in the New Year is due on 10 January 2020.
