Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.20 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.05 %, Hang Seng fell 0.05 %, ASX 200 declined 0.35 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1238 (-0.30 %), Silver at $16.58 (+0.05 %), WTI Oil at $46.20 (+0.35 %), Brent Oil at $48.85 (+0.15 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.33, UK 10-year yield at 1.26, German 10-year yield at 0.47
News & Data
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.4 vs 49.5 expected
- Australia Building Approvals -5.6 % vs -1.3 % expected
- Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 17.0 vs 15.0 expected
- Japan Large Non-Manufacturers Index 23.0 vs 23.0 expected
- Japan Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX 8.0 % vs 7.4 % expected
- Japan Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 52.0 expected
- South Korea Manufacturing PMI 50.1 vs 49.2 previous
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR long 59K vs 45K long last week
- GBP short 39K vs 38K short last week
- JPY short 61K vs 50K short last week
- CHF short 5K vs 3K short last week
- CAD short 49K vs 82K short
- AUD long 20k vs long 15k last week
- NZD long 25K vs 21K long last week
Markets Update:
The US Dollar recovered slightly overnight. EUR/USD started the new trading week around 1.1425 and declined to 1.1405. EUR/USD is oversold in the short-term, but is likely to run into decent demand on larger retracements. Support is seen at 1.1370 and again at 1.1320.
GBP/USD opened at 1.2995, roughly 30 pips lower from Friday’s close. During the Asian session, it retraced its initial losses, but eventually fell back to 1.2995. Meanwhile, the Yen weakened despite solid Japanese economic data overnight. USD/JPY started the day around 112.05 – down 40 pips from Friday’s close – but rallied to a high of almost 112.60 later in the session. Rising stock markets supported the pair. Resistance is next seen at 113.00.
AUD/USD traded in a tight range overnight (0.7667-95), and so did NZD/USD (0.7315-45). USD/CAD is heavily oversold near-term, and recovered somewhat in Asia. The pair bounced from 1.2960 and rose to 1.2990. Resistance is seen at 1.3030 and ahead of 1.31. While the downtrend remains strong, the charts suggest the pair could recover further in the near-term.
Upcoming Events:
- 08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales
- 08:45 BST – Italian Manufacturing PMI
- 08:50 BST – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:55 BST – German Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Unemployment Rate
- 13:00 BST – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
- 14:45 BST – US Manufacturing PMI
- 15:00 BST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, July 4th
- 02:30 BST – Australian Retail Sales
- 09:30 BST – UK Construction PMI
- 13:30 BST – ECB Member Praet speaks
Wednesday, July 5th
- 02:45 BST – Chinese Caixin Services PMI
- 08:45 BST – Italian Services PMI
- 08:50 BST – French Services PMI
- 08:55 BST – German Services PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Services PMI
- 09:30 BST – UK Services PMI
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Retail Sales
- 15:00 BST – US Factory Orders
- 19:00 BST – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, July 6th
- 02:30 BST – Australian Trade Balance
- 08:15 BST – Swiss CPI
- 08:45 BST – FOMC Member Williams speaks
- 12:30 BST – ECB Meeting Minutes
- 13:15 BST – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13:30 BST – US Trade Balance
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Trade Balance
- 14:45 BST – US Services PMI
- 15:00 BST – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 16:00 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
Friday, July 7th
- 00:30 BST – FOMC Member Fischer speaks
- 06:45 BST – Swiss Unemployment Rate
- 07:00 BST – German Industrial Production
- 08:30 BST – UK Halifax House Price Index
- 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing Production
- 09:30 BST – UK Industrial Production
- 09:30 BST – UK Trade Balance
- 13:30 BST – US NFP
- 13:30 BST – US Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Employment Change
- 15:00 BST – Canadian Ivey PMI
