Today in the late the European session (12:00, GMT) BoE’s interest rate decision is to be released and pound traders tend to zoom in as the release coincides also with the release of BoE’s inflation report, making it a Super Thursday. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold at +0.75% and GBP OIS imply a probability of 97.93% for the bank to do so. Should the bank remain on hold once again as Brexit uncertainty ties its hands for any action, we could see the market’s attention turning to the accompanying statement, the economic forecasts and Carney’s press conference (12:30, GMT). If the bank maintains a more hawkish tone by continuing to “see gradual and limited” hikes down the line, in case of a soft Brexit, the pound could strengthen. On the flip side, should the bank adopt a more neutral or even dovish tone, we expect the pound to weaken substantially. GBP/USD weakened somewhat yesterday, distancing itself from the 1.2885 (R1) resistance line. We maintain a bearish outlook for the pair’s direction as the pair seems to slowly form a downward trendline since the 1st of November. However, it should be noted that BoE’s interest rate decision could turn the pair’s direction either way and that the RSI indicator in the 4-hour chart, is nearing the reading of 30. Should the pair remain under the selling interest of the market, we could see it aiming for the 1.2760 (S1) support line, yet may require greater downward volatility, in order to clearly break it, within the next day. On the flip side should the pair’s long positions be favoured by the market, we could see it breaking the prementioned upward trendline, the 1.2885 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3015 (R2) resistance level.
…while Yen strengthened as market worries pick up again…
Doubts about when the US and China are to sign a partial deal seem to persist, if not grow, testing the market’s nerves. It was characteristic yesterday that the USD weakened against the JPY providing safe-haven inflows for the Japanese currency, while at the same time gained ground over the Aussie. Market optimism was caught by surprise as US officials stated that the signing of the “phase 1” deal could be delayed until December. It should be noted that in the past, US officials had made similar statements, however yesterday’s market reaction, strengthens the perception regarding the nervousness of the market and its anticipation for the deal to be signed this month. Also, the Chinese insistence for more tariffs to be rolled back seems to create further worries, as the US may have little incentive for such a move. Should negative headlines multiply, we could see the USD weakening further from the news and vice versa. USD/JPY dropped yesterday, breaking the upward trendline incepted since the 1st of November and the 109.00 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. Hence, we abandon the bullish outlook we had maintained for the pair since Monday. Should the bears dictate the pair’s direction, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 108.35 (S1) support line. On the other hand, should the bulls be in charge once again of the pair’s direction, we could see the pair breaking the 109.00 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 109.70 (R2) resistance level.
Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow
Today during the European session, we get Germany’s industrial output growth rate for September, UK’s Halifax house prices index growth rate for October. Besides the BoE interest rate decision, at the same time we also get from the Czech Republic, CNB’s interest rate decision. In the American session, we get the number US initial jobless claims for the past week. In the Asian session tomorrow, we get Japan’s household spending for September and China’s trade data also for September. As for speakers, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are scheduled to speak. Also bear in mind that ECB’s economic bulletin, EU economic forecasts and RBA’s monetary policy statement (Asian session) are to be released.
USD/JPY 4 Hour
Support: 108.35 (S1), 107.75 (S2), 107.20 (S3)
Resistance: 109.00 (R1), 109.70 (R2), 110.80 (R3)
GBP/USD 4 Hour
Support: 1.2760 (S1), 1.2640 (S2), 1.2510 (S3)
Resistance: 1.2885 (R1), 1.3015 (R2), 1.3170 (R3)
