HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisPBOC Says Interest Rate Levels Are Appropriate

PBOC Says Interest Rate Levels Are Appropriate

General Trend:

  • US Treasury Sec Mnuchin said talks with China Vice Premier Liu He will resume during the week of Oct 7 [Earlier on Monday, Mnuchin said Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit next week for talks]
  • Asian equity markets trade generally higher, Shanghai and HK rise after declines on Monday; Japanese equities gain upon return from holiday
  • Anheuser-Busch confirms pricing of HK IPO at lower end of expected range
  • Japanese automakers trade mixed, various Japanese officials address press speculation regarding a delay in the US/Japan trade agreement
  • Japan Sept prelim PMI Manufacturing contracted at the sharpest rate since Feb, follows disappointing German PMI
  • PBOC Gov: Not in a rush to roll out massive rate cuts or QE, have room to make adjustments but that is treasured
  • PBOC Gov on Digital Currency: Making good progress on digital currency but no specific timetable
  • RBA Gov Lowe is due to deliver his ‘An Economic Update’ speech on Sept 24th (Tues) at 8:05 PM local time (10:05 AM GMT)
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ ) official cash rate (OCR) decision is expected on Wed Sept 25th

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

  • ASX 200 opened flat
  • TWR.NZ Acquires Youi NZ insurance portfolio for NZ$13.0M; announces 1 for 4 pro-rata entitlement offer at NZ$0.56/shr for NZ$47.2M; raises FY19 guidance and gives business update
  • (NZ) According to NZME‘s “Mood of the Boardroom” survey of CEOs the RBNZ rate cut to 1% hasn’t significantly changed investment appetite of New Zealand companies

Japan

  • Nikkei 225 opened +0.1%
  • (JP) JAPAN SEPT PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 48.9 V 49.3 PRIOR (5th consecutive contraction and lowest since Feb)
  • (JP) Japan public and private sectors plan to fund $10B in projects around the world to encourage use of LNG as part of move away from Mideast oil – Nikkei
  • (JP) Japan Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Still time to reach trade deal with US before the end of Sept
  • (JP) Japan US trade deal will not ready to sign when Abe and Trump meet Wednesday, still under going legal checks, will sign separate documents confirming final agreement – Japan press
  • (JP) Japan Econ Min Nishimura: understands that Japan US trade talks are in final stages and aiming for an agreement; remaining talks include wording of trade agreement which is being accelerated
  • (JP) Japan Foreign Min Motegi: Negotiations for trade deal with the US finished today, ceremony to be held day after tomorrow

Korea

  • Kospi opened -0.1%
  • (KR) US President Trump: Will be speaking with South Korea President Moon on trade deal and North Korea
  • (KR) South Korea Pres Moon: hope that Trump will have a third summit meeting with North Korea’s Kim; Will increase imports of US LNG
  • (KR) South Korea Aug PPI M/M +0.2% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.3% prior
  • 036460.KR Signs 15-year deal to purchase 1.58Mt/year of US LNG from BP, starting in 2025
  • (KR) South Korea president Moon and Trump discussed 3-year plan to purchase US weapons – Yonhap

China/Hong Kong

  • Hang Seng opened +0.3%; Shanghai Composite opened +0.1%
  • (CN) US President Trump: China has committed to buy a lot of US agriculture products
  • (CN) Trader sources: China importers bought 10 vessels of US soybeans (600K tons) for Oct-Dec shipment from the US Monday – press
  • (CN) US Treasury Sec Mnuchin: Confirms that delay of China delegation to US farm belt was delayed at our request
  • (US) Treasury Sec Mnuchin: Talks with China Vice Premier Liu will resume week of Oct 7 (later than he announced earlier today)
  • (CN) China PBoC: Interest rate levels are appropriate; has ample monetary policy tools and relatively big policy room; risk from shadow banking and key institutions have been steadily resolved; financial risks are generally under control – joint briefing by Gov Yi Gang, NBS chief Jizhe and Fin Min Liu Kun
  • (CN) China PBoC Gov Yi Gang: Reiterates to maintain prudent monetary policy, will not pursue stimulus policies with a flood of credit even as other countries are pushing ahead with easing; not in a rush to roll out massive rate cuts or QE, have room to make adjustments but that is treasured
  • (CN) China NDRC Vice Chairman Ning Jizhe: Will step up efforts to stabilize growth; will issue 2020 special bond plan ahead of schedule; to speed up construction of investment projects and speed up project reserves
  • (CN) China Fin Min Liu Kun: Will adjust policies on tax and fee cuts based on assessments; China aiming to allocate all local govt bond proceeds to projects by the end of Oct
  • (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan Reference Rate: 7.0729 v 7.0734 prior
  • (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY40B in 14-day reverse repos v CNY100B prior in 7-day and 14-day; Net injection CNY40B v CNY100B injected prior
  • (CN) China gives new waivers for tariff free US soybean purchases

Other Asia

  • (PH) Philippines Central Bank Chief Diokno: Growth potential of 6.5% can rise to 7.5% in 2020; central bank will maximize new charter to rein in CPI; will use any tool to achieve price stability

North America

  • (US) President Trump asked acting chief of staff Mulvaney to put a hold on military aid to Ukraine 1-week ahead of call to Ukraine President, where he pressured them to investigate VP Biden – US press
  • AAPL Spokesperson: to manufacture the new Mac Pro in Austin, Texas; production will start soon
  • BA US Federal Aviation (FAA): The end of grounding of 737 Max is up to the individual countries; continues to go through the process, no prescribed time line for return to service – FAA and technical experts meet with safety regulators

Europe

  • (IR) Iran Foreign Min Zarif: European partners to Iran nuclear deal have failed to fulfill their obligations – tweet
  • (UK) Govt official: PM Johnson was clear with EU’s Tusk that a Northern Ireland only backstop was not a solution UK could accept; What we’re looking for from the EU is that they’re ready to engage seriously with ideas that we’ve put forward
  • (UK) Ireland PM Varadkar: we can’t accept a ‘halfway house’ on the border; we must have legally binding assurance on Ireland border

Levels as of 1:20 ET

  • Nikkei 225, +0.1%, ASX 200 +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.3%; Shanghai Composite +0.7%; Kospi +0.3%
  • Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.3%; Nasdaq100 +0.4%, Dax flat; FTSE100 +0.3%
  • EUR 1.0999-1.0986 ; JPY 107.68-107.47 ; AUD 0.6779-0.6764 ;NZD 0.6303-0.6286
  • Gold -0.2% at 1,528$/oz; Crude Oil -0.5% at $58.36/brl; Copper -0.2% at $2.614/lb
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