Market movers ahead
- In the US, we expect manufacturing PMI to tick below 50. On the Fed, we will look out for the FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole Conference.
- In the euro area, the fragile manufacturing sector is not about to recover. We expect a further plunge in PMIs here. We will also watch the ECB minutes.
- In Sweden, we will look out for the unemployment figures. We expect a sharp but probably temporary drop-back in unemployment.
- In Norway, we expect the Q3 investment survey to confirm that oil investments will continue to boost the economy.
Weekly wrap-up
- The US 10-year government bond yield fell below the two-year yield, leading to the first inversion of the yield curve in 12 years.
- The US delayed the planned tariff increase on China from 1 September to 15 December, done mainly so as not to hurt Christmas sales.
- Economic data was mixed this week. The German ZEW survey fell to the lowest level since 2011. On the other hand, US retail sales surprised on the upside.
- Hong Kong protests escalated this week. Further escalation could trigger Beijing intervention, which could add to current market woes.